Despite drought Minnesota's harvest down only slightly
Except for a small area on the North Dakota border, the entire state is abnormally dry. Much of southern, central and northeast Minnesota has moderate to severe drought conditions.
In central Minnesota, Connie Pearson says she's measured less than an inch of rain since the end of June on her farm near Grove City. She says the farm's corn yield may be only half of normal. She's skeptical about the USDA estimate.
"If we're in a drought cycle we're going to continue to see this dryness continue... which will mean that that forecast yield number will continue to drop."
"Our area sure isn't going to help that average," says Pearson. "I don't know if it's good enough in southern Minnesota and the area that had timely rains that we can average that. That's maybe a little bit suspect."
The agriculture department projects a corn yield across the state that's only down about 3 percent from last year. Drought also affected the state in 2006, but timely August rain pushed yields into the normal range. The weather this year has been so bad that more than half the state's counties qualify for federal disaster assistance. But even as crops wither in some areas, parts of the state could see bumper crops.
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According to Craig Schrader, University of Minnesota extension agent, there are corn fields that could produce far more than 156 bushels an acre.
"I have a demonstration drainage site west of St. Peter and I walked that about a week ago," says Schrader. "I was just struck by how good it did look. The corn is a good green color almost the whole length of the stalk. The ears look like they're well filled. So I'm guessing a field like that's probably going to, I'm guessing close to 200 (bushels an acre)."
Another factor boosting yields is that most corn plants are better able to withstand drought than in the past. Through genetic trail and error, research scientists have developed drought tolerant corn stalks. Craig Schrader says even though he's seen some very nice fields, he feels the USDA estimate is a little optimistic. He says along with very productive areas, he's also seen some corn already turning brown from a lack of rain.
Minnesota Agriculture Commissioner Gene Hugoson calls the corn estimate a bit of a surprise, saying it's on the high side. Hugson says the USDA estimate assumes that normal rain will fall for the rest of the growing season.
"Reality is, if we're in a drought cycle we're going to continue to see this dryness continue," says Hugoson. "Which will mean that that forecast yield number will continue to drop."
There are other statistical boundaries affecting the corn estimate. Much of the corn in the worst hit areas of central Minnesota is chopped for silage, a feed for livestock. Those fields are not counted in the USDA estimate.
For the Minnesota soybean crop, the agriculture department estimates a statewide average of 40 bushels an acre, down nine percent from last year.
The drought so far this year has left parts of the state six inches or more below normal rainfall. On her place near Grove City, Connie Pearson says drought can turn a farmer into a philosopher.
"That's part of farming. You just kind of have those years once in a while," says Pearson.
Pearson has the same outlook as many farmers facing dry conditions. Rain will still help soybean fields, but may not do much for the corn.
