Forecasters expect flooding in Midwest, but not Minnesota

(AP) - Government forecasters said Thursday that the floods washing over large parts of the Midwest are just a taste of things to come, with one meteorologist complaining about a jet stream "on steroids."

Record rainfall and melting snow packs will continue to cause rivers to overflow in large areas of the country, the National Weather Service said.

The Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota is not one of those areas. Hydrologist Mike Lukes, at the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, N.D., said the Red River Basin, in most parts, is "more on the low side of normal," though a major storm could change that.

"So far, so good," Lukes said Thursday. An updated outlook is expected next week, he said.

"What's happened in the last few months has not been a typical La Nina. The jet stream's been on steroids."

The chances of serious flooding throughout the rest of the Minnesota due to snow melt are also pretty low, said weather service hydrologist Jim Husaby from his office outside Minneapolis on Thursday.

He said there was less snow than normal over the winter and the heavy rains of last fall had time to soak into the ground or flow down the state's rivers. Generally, there's a less than a 10 percent change of flooding in southeastern Minnesota rivers.

Husaby noted that those predictions could change.

"If you got some April rains, that's a whole nother matter," he said.

The greatest flooding danger includes much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, most of New York, all of New England and portions of the West, including Colorado and Idaho.

"Overall moisture is unprecedented for this time of year over an area that extends over 1,000 miles," said Doug LeComte, a meteorologist at the government's Climate Prediction Center.

Joanna Dionne, a meteorologist at the weather service's Hydrologic Services section, added that "all the ingredients are there for flooding in this broad area and up into the northeast."

"American citizens should be on high alert to flood conditions in your communities. Arm yourselves with information about how to stay safe during a flood and do not attempt to drive on flooded roadways," said Vickie Nadolski, deputy director of the weather service.

Heavy rains have dumped as much as a foot of rain in the Midwest this week, leaving behind more than a dozen deaths. Rivers were cresting above flood stage in Ohio and flooding also was reported in parts of Arkansas, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, Missouri and Kentucky.

LeComte noted that a La Nina, an unusual cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean has been under way and that often leads to wetter conditions in the U.S. Midwest.

However, he added, "what's happened in the last few months has not been a typical La Nina. The jet stream's been on steroids."

The forecast models differ on whether it will continue into summer, he said, "we'll have to wait and see."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said more than 250 communities in a dozen states are experiencing flood conditions this week.

The spring flood forecast said the heavy winter snow combined with recent rain indicates parts of Wisconsin and Illinois should see minor to moderate flooding, with as much as a 20 to 30 percent chance of major flooding on some rivers in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)