Economic and political aftershocks may be yet to come

The earthquake in Haiti is not only a devastating event from a human perspective; it is a disaster that is imperiling that county's best chance in decades for achieving political stability.

I have observed Haitian events and politics for 50 years. In 1959 I taught English to students of the Haitian Military Academy. In 1990 President George H.W. Bush asked me to be part of the official U.S. team observing Haiti's presidential elections. In 1994 I was part of the U.S. delegation that traveled to Haiti with President Bill Clinton when President Jean-Bertrand Aristide was returned to power. But even more important, I have maintained close ties with the military cadets I instructed in languages as they have risen to positions of prominence in Haitian government.

This is a tragedy of unimaginable proportions. There was abject poverty and distress in Haiti prior to the earthquake; I can only imagine how horrid the situation is now. Haiti lacks good roads and bridges, hospital and emergency services to aid its citizens in a disaster like this. Haiti is a nation of 9 million people, living in an area the size of Minnesota's St. Louis, Lake and Cook counties, and it lacks the most basic services necessary to recover from a disaster of this magnitude.

As the richest nation in the world, we have a moral responsibility to help the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere in such a time of such dire need. However, there are practical considerations in our own national interest for assisting Haiti as well.

This is a pivotal moment for democracy in Haiti. President Rene Garcia Preval has established stability, continuity and trust in government.

If, as expected, the Preval government sets the stage for presidential elections for November 2010; and he, as is required under the Constitution, does not run for reelection, then Haiti can enter an unprecedented period of political stability that will foster economic growth. Investor confidence will come back to the country.

Conversely, if the Haitian government fails in this humanitarian crisis, the political turmoil will be unimaginable, and will plunge the country into another decade or more of even worse distress. It is imperative for us to intervene for the long-term stability of the region. Our government has to show that it can partner with the Haitian government to provide service to the people and order amongst the chaos, and to demonstrate the potential for long-term recovery.

This is truly a critical moment in the history of the entire Caribbean region. If in the weeks following the earthquake the international community does not shore up the government, does not provide humanitarian assistance and restore the services of government to the people, then there will be an equal political earthquake -- and collapse.

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Jim Oberstar, D-Minn., is a member of the U.S. House of Representatives.

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