A lot of people have asked me which movie I expect to take the Best Movie Oscar Sunday. "The Kings Speech" has been vacuuming up the other awards in recent weeks, but I don't think it will get the golden statuette. Why not? Three words: instant runoff voting.
Follow "Movie Maven" Stephanie Curtis and arts reporter Euan Kerr live during the Oscars as they comment on the show via Twitter starting at 7 p.m. CST.
If the Academy voted for Best Picture as it did pre-2010, I'd guess "The King's Speech" would win. Back then it didn't need a majority of votes, it needed a plurality.
But with instant runoff, which the Academy is using this year, you need to end up with a majority of votes as they are revealed round by round. If no film gets a majority in the first round, then the second choice of all the votes is taken into account.
That's why I think "The Social Network" will win.
A lot of people will choose it for their number one, but also many folks voting for smaller films like "127 Hours" or "The Kids are All Right" as their number one, will place "The Social Network" in their number two. In short, I think "The Social Network" is more people's number two film than "The King's Speech" is people's number two.
Here's an award-winning film primer about ranked choice voting by my colleagues Curtis Gilbert and Molly Bloom.
Stephanie Curtis, AKA the "Movie Maven," is a producer for The Current.