The future for Afghanistan
The refusal of Afghan President Hamid Karzai last week to sign the security agreement that had been negotiated with the United States prompted President Obama to suggest that U.S. troops might leave completely by the end of the year.
Previously, U.S. commanders have envisioned a residual force to remain behind and assist Afghanistan's government. They worry that a complete withdrawal will leave Afghanistan vulnerable to a Taliban resurgence and render the American sacrifice there meaningless.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has said the security agreement is necessary to provide American personnel "critical protections and authorities after 2014."
What would happen if all U.S. and NATO troops left Afghanistan after a 13-year presence? Experts agree this would be a less-than-ideal outcome — but can it be averted?
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READ MORE ABOUT THE TENSIONS BETWEEN U.S., AFGHANISTAN:
• NATO agrees to prepare for complete pullout from Afghanistan by end of year
The current plan sets several priorities for the post-2014 mission: building institutional capacity at Afghanistan's defense and interior ministries, improving Afghan intelligence and aviation capabilities, and continuing special operations and counterterrorism missions.
The military — and the CIA — would like to preserve the ability to launch drone strikes against militant targets inside Pakistan. "If we want an optimal solution," the senior military official said, U.S. forces need "the physical ability to have the intelligence and strike assets that are there." (Karen DeYoung, Washington Post)
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Grim Afghan future if no security pact, says general
The impasse, [Gen. Martin] Dempsey said, ''is having an effect on the enemy and in some ways I think encourages them, and intelligence supports that.'' He said the uncertainty of a continued U.S. presence may encourage some Afghan security forces to reach out to the Taliban. ... He also said he expects that the Taliban will become more aggressive during the coming summer fighting season.
Noting that the Afghan forces were in the combat lead last year for the first time, he said they did well. ''So I think the Taliban have always calculated that they need to up their game this year to confront what they now realize is a pretty credible opponent.''
He added that while the United States can wait until after the spring elections before deciding whether to completely withdraw all forces, that decision will have to be made sometime in the summer. (Boston Globe)