While President Obama visits Asia and focuses on international relations, The Daily Circuit catches up on domestic politics. We get the latest on Obamacare, the "Ready for Hillary" organization and Senate elections.
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• Good News for Obamacare Is Bad News for Conservative Pundits
The irony is that, had conservatives been a little less quick to trumpet every nugget of potentially bad news, the administration would be riding a little less high right now — and their own predictions would look a little less silly. (National Journal)
• What does 'running on Obamacare' look like?
Discussions of the politics of Obamacare are suffering from many of the same deficits that plague discussions of the policy — they are lagging behind indicators of changing facts on the ground. It is as if there is an unwritten rule that such analysis must not take into account public opinion on repeal — the stance of every 2014 GOP candidate — and must not mention that multiple Republican candidates are having their own problems as repeal becomes less tenable. Those things can be relevant even as it's also true that on balance, Obamacare remains a net negative for Dems, and they have at least a 50-50 chance of losing the Senate. (Washington Post)
• 'Ready For Hillary': Clinton's Campaign-In-Waiting
This kind of bottom-up grass-roots organizing was not a strong suit for Hillary's 2008 campaign. But the shadow campaign developing in advance of a possible 2016 sequel is focusing on the ground level. Ready for Hillary raises small donations by selling baby onesies and holding small-dollar fundraisers. (NPR)
• Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November
More than six months from the midterm elections, current polling and past precedent are competing for our trust. I analyzed which measure is more indicative come November, and it turns out that polls are a more robust metric even though their numbers are still sparse and there's still so much time remaining before the election. That's not to say that a president's approval rating is useless: It can help refine early polls to make them more accurate. This year, when we factor in both, it doesn't look promising for Democrats in Alaska, Arkansas, Kentucky or Louisiana. (FiveThirtyEight)
• 2014 elections: 10 critical Senate races (Politico)