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Florence’s flooding rains continue; a summery weekend for Minnesota

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Hurricane Florence's sustained winds dropped to 70 mph late Friday afternoon, so Florence is now a tropical storm:

"Crawls" is a good description, since tropical storm Florence has been moving westward at only about 3 mph this Friday afternoon.

The slow movement of Florence will drop additional heavy rain on areas that have already seen flooding rains:

Flooding will continue across much of North Carolina this weekend:

Sadly, some fatalities have been reported:

rt0914florfat

More rain

Florence will continue to drop flooding rains over North Carolina and parts of South Carolina as we go into the weekend.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from this Friday evening through Sunday evening:

rt914rad3
NOAA NAM simulated radar from Friday evening through Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Some areas could see additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20+ inches:

rt0914flrain2
NOAA/National Weather Service Potential additional rainfall from Florence over the next 5 days

Florence update

Here’s the Friday evening update on Florence, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 62A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018

800 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE'S CENTER MOVES INTO EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE

TONIGHT...

...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH

AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...33.9N 78.8W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina

* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina

* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states

should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was

located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 33.9 North, longitude

78.8 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A

slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected through

Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move

farther inland across extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and

Saturday. Florence will then move generally northward across the

western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next

week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening

is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence

moves farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)

from the center.  Within the past hour or two, a sustained wind of

55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) were reported at

the National Ocean Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in

Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface

observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the

potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft

Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC...3-5 ft

Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and

destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over

short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

RAINFALL:  Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive

rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South

Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals

of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash

flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest

Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will

produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at

several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday

morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also

over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern

South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well

inland.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina

through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions

of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather

office.

The projected path of the center of Florence, from the National Hurricane Center:

rt0914flortrack2
NWS National Hurricane Center

Summery Minnesota weekend

Dew point temps will reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees in much of southern and central Minnesota this weekend.

Saturday afternoon highs will be well into the 80s in southern and central Minnesota:

rt0915h3

A few spots in the Twin Cities metro area and far southern Minnesota could touch 90.

80s will be common across most of Minnesota on Sunday:

rt0916h3

A few spots in the northeast will see highs in the 70s.

Twin Cities highs are expected to be in the lower 80s Monday, followed by lower 70s Tuesday and around 70 Wednesday and Thursday.

Rain chances

The northern half of Minnesota will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday evening and overnight Friday night.

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible in northern Minnesota on Saturday.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

Sunday looks mostly rain-free, but some periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of Minnesota Monday through Thursday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.