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A cool and soggy weekend; heavy rain potential

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I know, the timing of the weekend rain is unfortunate.

There are a lot of graduation parties and other outdoor gatherings this time of year, and showers and thunderstorms can really gum up those plans. Many of us will have to go to plan B this weekend.

Temperature trends

Minnesota highs will be mainly in the 60s Friday afternoon, with some upper 50s in parts of the far north.

Saturday highs are expected to be mainly in the 50s and upper 40s, but 60s and 70s are possible in far southern Minnesota:

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Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could reach the mid-50s, but that's well below our average high of 70 degrees for this time of year.  Sunday highs will be mainly in the 40s and lower 50s across Minnesota.

Twin Cities metro area highs rebound to the lower 60s on Monday, followed by around 60 Tuesday, mid-60s Wednesday and 70 degrees on Thursday.

Rain and thunder 

Showers will continue to move across parts of southern Minnesota this Friday morning, and into early Friday afternoon. A shower could clip the far southern edge of the metro area by late morning.

Then we have the following scenario:

  • There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in southwestern Minnesota early Friday afternoon, then spreading northeastward during the afternoon hours. Our metro area rain chance arrives by late Friday afternoon.

  • Showers/thunderstorms could become more numerous in much of Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin Friday evening.

  • Periods of rain, with embedded thunderstorms, are expected across most of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin overnight Friday night and also Saturday and Saturday night.

  • Periods of rain linger in most areas on Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar from Friday afternoon though Saturday afternooin, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Heavy rainfall totals are possible in some areas over the next few days. Here's the NWS depiction of those totals:

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NWS Twin Cities

Be alert to possible flood watches and warnings Friday night and through the weekend.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the NWS shows a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in southwestern Minnesota Friday and Friday night:

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NWS Storm Prediction Center

The metro area and much of the remainder of southern Minnesota are in a marginal risk for severe weather.

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, while marginal risk indicates that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

SPC shows a marginal risk of severe weather Saturday and Saturday night in about the southern half of Minnesota plus parts of Wisconsin:

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NWS Storm Prediction Center

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.