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Feeling summery Friday through Sunday, with showers and storms at times

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Astronomical summer begins at 10:54 a.m. CDT on Friday. It'll feel summery, with dew points rising to the upper 50s to lower 60s Friday afternoon.  If you have outdoor plans during this first weekend of astronomical summer, keep in mind that we aren't expecting any all-day rains.

Temperature trends

Minnesota highs will be mainly in the 70s this Thursday afternoon, with some 60s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Most areas will also see 70s Friday afternoon, with cooler temps near Lake Superior:

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The 60s expand to cover much of northeastern Minnesota on Saturday, with 70s elsewhere:

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Sunday highs will be mainly in the 70s, with a few spots in far southern Minnesota topping 80.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 70s to near 80 on Sunday, followed by 80 Monday, lower 80s Tuesday and mid 80s Wednesday.

Rain and thunder chances

The Thursday morning showers in parts of southwestern and southeastern Minnesota will expand to include more of Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin Thursday afternoon and evening. The showers will be scattered, and a few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday through Saturday and Sunday, but there'll be many hours of dry weather too.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Friday through Sunday:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar from Friday through Sunday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

It'll rain in some areas that look dry in the simulated radar loop, but the loop illustrates the intermittent nature of the rain.

Severe weather outlook 

A few thunderstorms could be severe Friday and Friday night. The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather Friday and Friday night in much of west-central, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, with other parts of Minnesota (including the Twin Cities metro area) in a marginal risk of severe weather.

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NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible, while slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible:

The Storm Prediction Center will update the Friday severe weather outlook this afternoon.

Drought Update

As you might imagine, Minnesota isn't currently experiencing any drought conditions. The latest update from U.S. Drought Monitor shows that portions of far northern Minnesota are abnormally dry, but not in drought:

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U.S. Drought Monitor/USDA/NOAA/University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.