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Two more lovely days, then unsettled Thursday through the weekend

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June has been refreshingly non-humid with little hot weather so far. The Twin Cities has reached 90 degrees officially only once this spring, on June 7.

The Twin Cities had a high of 75 on Monday, 5 degrees below the daily average, while International Falls, Minn., peaked at just 63.

A cold front departing southern Minnesota Tuesday morning will leave a trail of cooler-than-normal Canadian air in its wake. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s near Canada and low to mid 70s in the central and southern parts of the state. The Twin Cities should reach about 75 again, with a light northwest breeze.

Tuesday showers?

Yes, isolated showers are likely mainly across the northern half of Minnesota. Cyclonic flow behind the departing low pressure center will provide dynamic energy for pop-up showers, only to be enhanced by that powerful June sun in the afternoon.

June 18 - dlh wx story
Tuesday forecast for the Duluth area aas well as northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Duluth National Weather Service

A few light showers might reach as far south as the Twin Cities area by late Tuesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, well to our south

Severe weather is expected across the southern Plains on Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Enhanced risks of severe weather have been posted for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and West Texas.

June 18 - svr
Risks of severe storms for Tuesday and Tuesday night. NOA Storm Prediction Center

A mow-your-lawn or ride-your-bicycle Wednesday

Wednesday should be a perfect day to get outdoors and enjoy perfect June weather.

We will have dry skies just about everywhere with just the possibility of a pesky isolated sprinkle. High temperatures should be in the 70s except downwind of larger lakes. The Twin Cities should hit about 76.

I suggest mowing and bicycling not just because the weather will be excellent for those activities, but also because our atmospheric pattern is likely to turn wetter beginning on Thursday.

Active weather pattern Thursday through Sunday

A broad trough of low pressure will set up to our west on Thursday and hang around through the weekend. Spurts of energy through the trough will kick off periods of showers and thunderstorms.

The first surface low-pressure system will trigger quite a few showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Rain appears likely for western and northern Minnesota, but models are ambivalent as to the strength of the system when it reaches the Twin Cities area late in the day.

Also note that by Thursday the risk of heavy rain and flash flooding as well as severe weather will have shifted to the east and out of the storm-plagued middle of the country.

June 18 - Th fcst map
Forecast weather map for Thursday. Weather Prediction Center

Timing of storm events for us after Thursday gets rather fuzzy. While the weather dynamics can be forecast fairly well a few days out, storms often form along boundaries leftover from previous storms. Those boundaries are very difficult to forecast with any accuracy whatsoever.

So for now I would just anticipate periods of showers and thunderstorms to remain in the forecast from Thursday until at least Sunday. The best chance for strong storms might be late on Friday, but that's just the early word.

Next week in between

I expect that we will warm up some next week. It could be an in-between week as much of the South and East is likely to bake while the western U.S. trends much cooler than normal.

That would leave us with uncertainty as to being warmer or cooler than normal, which likely will turn out to be near normal.

June 18 - 6-10 day temp prob outlook
6-10 day temperature probability outlook for June 23-27 (Sunday through next Thursday). NOAA Weather Prediction Center