Baby boom or bust: The forecast on U.S. birth rates

Many speculated the pandemic would lead to a baby boom, but early data tells a different story. Birth data for 2020 shows U.S. population growth is on a steady decline.  

The number of births fell by 4 percent last year with 3.6 million babies born in 2020 — down from 3.75 million births in 2019, a record low for the country. This marks the sixth consecutive year of decline and the lowest number since 1979.

Fertility rates are down, too. The total fertility rate (the average number of children women would have over their lifetime) has also trended downward since 1971 and has consistently been below the 2.1 replacement rate since 2007. It has since dropped to 1.63 percent. 

MPR News host Kerri Miller talked to two experts about what’s behind the downward trend and what it says about overall population health.

Guests:

• Francisca Antman is an associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder. 

• Sarah Brauner-Otto is an associate professor in the department of sociology at McGill University and director of the Centre on Population Dynamics.

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