Where is Minnesota at for rainfall totals? The answer may surprise you

NINI MOINI: Well, we're finally cooling down in Minnesota after some extreme heat, but now we're going to be tracking multiple rounds of rain, potential flooding. So joining me now with a detailed forecast for you is MPR meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. Fun to have you on, Sven.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Well, thanks for having me, Nina.

NINI MOINI: Well, so it is kind of cool today. It's a bit rainy. What are you seeing out there?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: A lot of rain on the radar. And yeah, that heat that they're complaining about on the East Coast is what we had over the weekend. So we get a nice break from it, but yeah, there's pretty much steady rain across Central Minnesota, Montevideo to Wilmer, St. Cloud, North Branch, wrapping around to Eau Claire. Twin Cities and points South across Southern Minnesota, the rain is more broken. So on and off showers, some thunder. But mainly, we're just looking at rain out there right now. But we do have a flood watch for much of central and Southeastern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin through 7:00 AM tomorrow. Wilmer, St. Cloud, Twin Cities, Mankato, Albert Lea, Red Wing, Rochester, all included in that, because we're going to see these heavy bands of rain continue on and off.

And where we get some of those heavier amounts, we could see some flash flood warnings. So that's what we're going to be watching for here. This is wave number one moving through. So we'll have on and off breaks. And I think the overnight, and hopefully, the last hour of the evening, maybe we can have largely a dry break, at least from the steady rain, if you want to get outside for a moment, let the dog out and not get soaked, because another round of rain is coming in early tomorrow into tomorrow midday.

So two main rounds, the one today, another one tomorrow. And in total, we're looking at 1 to 3 plus inches. There are going to be some locally higher amounts. Already radar estimating up to 2 to 4 inches of rain has fallen around Olivia and parts of that West central part of the state. So that's an area we'll have to watch if they keep getting the rainfall on top of those areas. It's really going to add up. And yeah, rain-cooled temperatures today and tomorrow, too, mostly in the 60s and low 70s.

Another thing we're going to have to look out for later today is the potential for some strong to severe storms in Southern Minnesota, places like Mankato down to Rochester, Albert Lea. There is a slight risk, level 2 out of 5, that we could see some strong to severe storms, maybe even a tornado or two down there. That's where that warm front is, the same front that cleared us Monday, lifting back North, creating the rain and then bringing that severe threat to the South.

NINI MOINI: Yeah, it feels like we've had a lot of rain recently, Sven. Are we at where we need to be at in terms of the month?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: This actually shocked me even. We're behind for most of the state. It seems like it's been a rainy June, and the rain has been frequent. Every two to three days we've had measurable rainfall. But for most of our major climate stations, we're actually behind by more than an inch in the Twin Cities. Duluth is behind by an inch. International Falls, Rochester, Fargo, Marshall all are behind. But there are pockets that are way above where we had some of those soaking rains in recent weeks. But yeah, it's a mixed picture, surprisingly, for June so far.

NINI MOINI: Yeah, and we've had quite a start to tornado season, too, it seems.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, this year people probably have also noticed that it seems like it's been an active start. And it has, 27 tornado reports so far this season across Minnesota. That's more than double what we had last year at this point and more than the year before. So most active start to severe weather season in three years. And that's keeping in trend with nationally. We're also running about 20% above normal for the tornado count this year.

NINI MOINI: Wow. And it was also super hot this past weekend, like you reminded us. Did we break records? What was going on there?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, we broke a bunch of records. Twin Cities and St. Cloud are major records stations that broke 96 degrees on Saturday. But 38 temperature records were set across the state. over just the weekend. Three places hit 100, Canby, Madison, Montevideo. Madison and Canby also hit 100 on Sunday. Of course, the heat index was almost 110. And we do get heat in June. We all know that. But the frequency of these extreme hot days are getting more frequent. By about four to five times more we're getting these extreme heat waves in June compared to a century ago. So that's another climate signal.

NINI MOINI: Yeah, and they're hitting on the weekends, Sven, which isn't awesome. But what are you forecasting for this weekend?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, unfortunately, a mixed bag. We got pride weekend. Every weekend in the summer is precious around here. Looks like Friday will be dry, brief dip in those dew points. Should be comfortable, probably low 80s for Southern Minnesota. And then it gets steamy this weekend. Dew points back in the 70s. Highs could be close to 90 Saturday across Southern Minnesota. And with that combination of heat and humidity, and we're still going to be in this upper level flow where we're going to have a couple disturbances coming through, there are going to be some thunderstorms around.

Now, it's not going to be a washout either day. Don't expect all day rain like what we're having today and tomorrow. But there are going to be some storms around, probably late Friday, Northwestern Minnesota. And then really anywhere Saturday and Sunday statewide, we could see some storms pop up, especially later in the day with that daytime heating. So if you've got some outdoor plans, have a plan to maybe dodge a thunderstorm for a brief period too.

NINI MOINI: Maybe have some indoor plans too.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah.

NINI MOINI: Thanks so much, Sven.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: You're very welcome, Nina.

NINI MOINI: That's MPR meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.