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(AP) - The recession will worsen and unemployment
rates will likely soar in nine Midwest and Plains states over the
next few months, but a new survey of business leaders suggests the
region may fare better than the nation as a whole.
      

The overall index for the region's Mid-America Business
Conditions survey fell to 33 in December from November's record low
of 37.8. Any score below 50 on the index, which ranges between 0
and 100, indicates a contracting economy over the next three to six
months.


      "December's employment reading was the weakest that we have
recorded since we began the study in 1994," Creighton University
economics professor Ernie Goss said. "Job cuts were recorded
across the broad sectors of durable and nondurable manufacturing as
well as value-added services. I expect regional job losses to mount
in the months ahead."


      The December employment index slid to 34.5 from November's 39
and October's 47.4.


      Goss, who oversees the survey, said the recession will be worse
than the nation's last one, in 2001, but he expects the region to
fare better than the nation during the downturn.
     

 The survey includes Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri,
Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
     

 The region will likely see prices fall during the first half of
2009, Goss said. The prices-paid index, which tracks the cost of
supplies and raw materials, dropped to a record low of 33 from
November's 49.6 and October's 61.6.


      "The global economic downturn has produced a very rapid slide
in prices," Goss said.


      Despite all the negative economic news, business leaders in the
region appeared slightly more optimistic about the next six months.
But even though December's confidence index climbed to 25.6 from
November's 22.4, the score remained well below 50.
     

 Trade numbers remained weak in December with a record low export
index of 27.5. That's down from November's 36.8. The import index
climbed to 43.8 in December from November's record low of 38.6.


      "The global economic slowdown is putting significant downward
pressure on exports, just as the U.S. economic recession is curbing
imports," Goss said.


      Other components of December's overall index were:


      - New orders fell to 26.8 from November's 30.4.


      - Production slid to 29 from November's 35.4.

      - Inventories at 37.3, down from 45.


      Goss and the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group have conducted
the monthly survey since 1994.


      The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing
Management Association, began to formally survey its membership in
1931 to gauge business conditions. The Creighton Economic
Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey.
      

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Business and Economic News

The recession will worsen and unemployment
rates will likely soar in nine Midwest and Plains states over the next few months, according to a new survey of business leaders in the region.

Survey: Recession will worsen in the months ahead

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