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Darrel McAlexander has been farming for
43 years and he's never seen his corn crop look so good.


      "This is probably the best corn crop I've raised," McAlexander
said from his farm in the southwestern Iowa town of Sidney.


      It's the same across the country as favorable weather has helped
farmers produce what could be a huge harvest, with projections
calling for 13 billion bushels. That would be just shy of the 13.04
billion bushels harvested in 2007.


      The giant crop is good news for farmers and livestock producers,
who should benefit from lower feed costs, but it probably won't
make a big difference to the cost of groceries.


      Although corn is a key ingredient in countless products, from
Coke to corn flakes, most of a product's cost is tied to labor and
transportation, not ingredients, said Kent Thiesse, a farm
management analyst and vice president of MinnStar Bank in Lake
Crystal, Minn.

      "Depending on what you're looking at on the store shelf, less
than 25 percent of the cost goes back to the base product,"
Thiesse said.


      Ephraim Liebtag, senior economist with the U.S. Department of
Agriculture's economics research service, agreed.
      

"The effect of corn changes on retail prices is pretty mild, and
at this point we don't see anyone predicting a major swing in corn
prices," Liebtag said. "If there isn't a major swing there is no
major impact, and the effect will be pretty negligible for the
consumer."


      A drop in corn prices is a rare bit of good news for a pork
industry that has been battered by pricey feed, a drop in demand
due to the recession and unfounded concerns about their product's
safety in the wake of the swine flu outbreak that has led other
countries to limit imports.

      "We have seen, over the past two years, production costs go way
up -- 70 percent of that is corn and soybean meal, so this would
most definitely help pork producers," said Dave Warner, spokesman
for the National Pork Producers Council.


      The expected harvest has helped drive down corn prices from
about $4.30 a bushel in early July to $3.17 currently. 


That's a
drop from a peak price of more than $6.80 a bushel in mid-2008 when
prices soared because of increases in ethanol production and
demands by the livestock industry.

      Doug Kleckner, who grows corn on his farm near St. Ansgar in
northern Iowa, said the nearly $7 corn is coming back to "haunt
us."


      "It was nice for the time being, but it's driven a lot of our
input costs up and now reality has set in -- prices have come down
but our input costs are still relatively high," said Kleckner, 61,
who farms on land once owned by his grandfather.
      

The price decline, coupled with persistent high costs of fuel,
fertilizer and equipment, isn't good news for farmers, but the huge
expected yield should ensure this season remains profitable.


      McAlexander, 65, said the weather deserves most of the credit.


      "We've had ideal weather," he said. "We got it planted early,
around the 12th of April, and we just had a decent growing
season."


      Lance Honig, chief of the crops branch at the National
Agricultural Statistics Service, said record high yields are
forecast for Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Ohio, Kentucky,
Pennsylvania and Georgia.


      Yields range from 187 bushels per acre in Iowa to 143 bushels an
acre in Georgia.


      NASS projects Minnesota's corn crop at 1.20 billion bushels, up
2 percent from 2008 and slightly above the record 1.19 billion
bushels set in 2005, with average yields of 167 bushels per acre,
up from 164 last year.


      Despite the good news, farmers remain edgy because cool
temperatures that have largely helped the crop also have delayed it
by a few weeks. That increases dangers of an early frost.


      "We're at the point where it's the biggest factor and depending
on where you're at, guys are very anxious to see when the first
frost occurs," Honig said. "I'm sure that's high on their list of
concerns."

      Average first frosts in the Corn Belt can range from as early as
Sept. 20 in far northwestern Minnesota to Oct. 25 in Kentucky and
the Ohio Valley region, said Harry Hillaker, the Iowa state
climatologist.


      Kleckner said his crop remains a couple weeks behind schedule
and an early frost could lower his yields.


      "We're getting short on moisture," he said. "A rain would
help. It's unbelievable how many kernels of corn are in an acre and
if they're nice and plump it makes a world of difference."

      Steve Wendel, 49, who grows corn on about 2,000 acres in
northern Iowa near Mason City, said although an early frost is a
concern, the recent dry, warm weather has been a big help.


      "Where we're at it's not going to hurt us much," Wendel said,
adding that this year's corn crop is among the best he's seen in
his more than 20 years of farming.


      McAlexander said he anticipates his yields to be 10-15 bushels
higher than last year and he expects others will see similar
results. At least for him, that will translate into money in the
bank.


      "We're not going to have a record year, but it should be a
profitable year for us," he said.

Gallery

USDA predicts record corn crop in Minnesota

Success of fall harvest depends on the weather

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Favorable weather has helped farmers
produce what could be a giant corn harvest.

Good weather could mean bumper corn crop

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