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Voters nervous about the economy and fed up with
the political establishment dominated the off-year elections,
sending a strong message to President Barack Obama, who won the
White House as a change agent but has himself become the face of
political power and incumbency.

      
Independents who supported Obama broke heavily for Republicans
Tuesday, helping the GOP win marquee governors' races in Virginia
and New Jersey. And the coalition of younger, minority voters who
powered Obama's victory last year was replaced by an electorate
that was noticeably whiter, especially in Virginia, where Democrat
Creigh Deeds lost in a landslide.

      
Yet Democrats weren't the only ones in danger, as voters also
vented their frustration at incumbents and party insiders.

      
In upstate New York, Democrat Bill Owens won a House seat held
for decades by Republicans in a special election dominated by a
fierce intraparty GOP split.

      
There, conservatives and national Republican figures led by
former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin helped force out
assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, the Republican candidate chosen by
GOP county chairmen, in favor of Conservative Party candidate Doug
Hoffman. The conservatives were incensed by Scozzafava's support
for abortion rights and gay marriage.

      
In New York City, independent Mayor Michael Bloomberg barely won
a third term against a little known, poorly funded Democratic
challenger. Polls going into the election showed voters generally
approved of Bloomberg's job performance but resented his aggressive
effort to get the city's term limits law lifted and his expenditure
of as much as $100 million of his own money to stay in power.

      
To be sure, each race was as much about local issues as about
firing warning shots at the politically powerful. But taken
together, the results of the 2009 off-year elections could imperil
Obama's ambitious legislative agenda and point to a challenging
environment in midterm elections next year.

      
"In bad economic times, people don't like the politicians who
are holding the reins of power," said Jack Pitney, a political
science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California. "For
Obama, it means the 2008 election was not a key to everlasting
success. It was the first step in an ongoing journey, and he's
going to have to work very hard to continue earning voters'
trust."

      
For now, Obama must worry about the impact of the 2009 contests
on health care reform, his signature legislative priority.

      
Earlier Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said a vote
on health care may not happen before the end of the year - a sign
that some Democrats don't feel confident tying themselves to Obama
and casting a controversial vote for his reform effort.

      
In the longer term, Democrats must figure out how to defend
Senate seats and hang onto dozens of House districts they won in
2006 and 2008 that could be imperiled now.

      
Party strategists worry the Obama voters who helped elect
Democrats up and down the ballot last year may sit out the midterms
because the president isn't on the ballot, or because they're
frustrated he's failed to bring the fundamental change to
Washington that he promised.

      
Democrats must defend as many as 60 marginal House seats next
year, many in districts the president lost or carried only narrowly
in 2008, as opposed to about 40 for Republicans.

      
Tuesday's results also pointed to a somewhat reinvigorated
Republican Party after it had been left for dead a year ago. That's
largely thanks to independents, the fastest growing voter bloc, and
the most notoriously fickle.

      
In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell won a whopping 66 percent
of the independent vote, helping him bury Deeds, who got just 33
percent. Obama narrowly carried independents in the state last
year, helping him become the first Democrat to win the state in a
presidential contest since 1964.

      
In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie won a much tighter race
against incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, largely on the
strength of independents. Christie won 60 percent of the
independent vote after Obama won a majority of independents last
year.

      
The GOP brand is still weak - several recent polls show the
percentage of voters calling themselves Republicans has dipped into
the low 20s - and the breakaway conservative movement seen in the
upstate New York congressional race could further erode the party's
efforts to broaden and rebuild.

      
But the two gubernatorial victories Tuesday proved Republicans
can win if they choose candidates responsive to the mood of their
state's electorate.

      "Republicans are a conservative party, all Republicans
generally are," GOP strategist Alex Castellanos said. "The
question is, can Republican candidates stand on conservative
principles and win the middle? That's what McDonnell and Christie
were able to do."

Gallery

Politics and Government News

Beth Fouhy

Author

Voters nervous about the economy and fed up with
the political establishment dominated the off-year elections,
sending a strong message to President Barack Obama, who won the
White House as a change agent but has himself become the face of
political power and incumbency.


AP Analysis: Nervous voters send Obama a message

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