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By Seth Borenstein and Harry R. Weber, Associated Press Writers


      Houston (AP) - New numbers showing the amount of oil gushing
from a well in the Gulf of Mexico may be double as much as
previously thought means the crude is likely to travel farther
away, threatening more birds, fish and other wildlife that call the
fragile waters their home, scientists said Friday.

      The new figures could mean 42 million gallons to more than 100
million gallons of oil have already fouled the Gulf's delicate
ecosystem and are affecting people who live, work and play along
the coast from Louisiana to Florida - and perhaps beyond.

      More oil means the giant gooey cloud can spread out over a
greater distance, having far worse consequences for the
environment, said Paul Montagna, a marine biologist at Texas A&M
University Corpus Christi.

      "Doubling the amount of oil does not have a linear effect, it
doesn't double the consequences, it may instead have quadruple the
consequences," Montagna, who studies the Gulf of Mexico deep sea
reefs and other underwater ecosystems, said.

      The new spill estimates released Thursday are worse than earlier
ones - and far more costly for BP, which has seen its stock sink
since the April 20 explosion that killed 11 workers and triggered
the spill. Most of the new estimates had more oil flowing in an
hour than what officials once said was spilling in an entire day.


      The spill was flowing at a daily rate that could possibly have
been as high as 2.1 million gallons, twice the highest number the
federal government had been saying, said U.S. Geological Survey
Director Marcia McNutt, who is coordinating estimates. But she said
possibly more credible numbers are a bit lower.


      Those estimates were the third - and perhaps not the last - time
the U.S. government has had to increase its estimate of how much
oil is gushing. Trying to clarify what has been a contentious and
confusing issue, officials gave a wide variety of figures.


      But none of the new estimates took into account the cutting of
the well's riser pipe on June 3 - which BP said would increase the
flow by about 20 percent - and subsequent placement of a cap, and
no estimates were given for the amount of oil gushing from the well
after the cut.


      The increased estimates present a larger danger to the animals
who live the Gulf's coastal marshes, said John Andrew Nyman, a
wetlands ecologist at Louisiana State University. The brown pelican
population was believed to be near its healthy capacity before the
spill, but with the spill affecting a larger area, the increase in
pelican deaths could seriously impact the bird's recent recovery,
he said.

      Also of particular concern were tuna, billfish such as marlin,
sailfish and swordfish, which tend to spawn in the region of the
Gulf affected by the spill, said Jim Franks, a fisheries biologist
at the University of Southern Mississippi Gulf Coast Research
Laboratory.


      "We are now into spawning season. The location and magnitude of
the spill, the young life stages of these fish, the larval forms,
are in a precarious situation," Franks said.


      But some scientists said they weren't surprised by the
government's new estimates, which some independent researchers had
been measuring for weeks.


      "The new rate, 40,000 to 50,000 barrels, is in line with what
independent scientists reported weeks ago," said Samantha Joye, a
professor of marine sciences at the University of Georgia who was
on the team that detected large, underwater plumes of oil.


      The oil flow estimates are not complete and different teams have
come up with different numbers. A new team from the Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institute came in with even higher estimates, ranging
from 1 million gallons a day to 2.1 million gallons. If the high
end is true, that means nearly 107 million gallons have spilled
since April 20.


      The Obama administration's point man for the Gulf Coast oil
spill acknowledged Friday that reliable numbers are hard to get.


      "I think we're still dealing with the flow estimate. We're
still trying to refine those numbers," said Coast Guard Adm. Thad
Allen said.


      But even using other numbers that federal officials and
scientists call a more reasonable range would have about 63 million
gallons spilling since the rig explosion. If that amount was put in
gallon milk jugs, they would line up for nearly 5,500 miles. That's
the distance from the spill to London, where BP is headquartered,
and then continuing on to Rome.


      By comparison, the Exxon Valdez, the previous worst U.S. oil
spill, was just about 11 million gallons. The new figures mean
Deepwater Horizon is producing an Exxon Valdez size spill every
five to 13 days.


      Meanwhile, oil still was washing up on Gulf beaches. But it
wasn't as bad Friday morning at Orange Beach, Ala., as it had been
earlier in the week. Waves brought in a foot-long chunk of what
appeared to be solid oil on the white sand. One side was flat and
curved, while the other was honeycombed with bubbles and a single
spot where crude oozed out.


      With all sorts of estimates for what's flowing from the BP well.
McNutt said the most credible range at the moment is between
840,000 gallons and 1.68 million gallons a day. She added that it
was "maybe a little bit more." Scientists used sonar, pressure
readings and video analysis to make the new estimates.


      Previous estimates had put the range roughly between half a
million and a million gallons a day, perhaps higher. At one point,
the federal government claimed only 42,000 gallons were spilling a
day and then it upped the number to 210,000 gallons.


      Allen said that it will be at least July before BP has tankers
in place to capture oil spilling from the well. And if undersea
efforts to direct the oil to the surface succeed, it will take
weeks to get the proper equipment in place to hold it, he said.


      Associated Press writers Jason Dearen, Tamara Lush, Ray Henry in
New Orleans, Jay Reeves in Orange Beach, Ala., John Flesher in
Traverse City, Mich., and Ben Evans in Washington contributed to
this report. Weber reported from Houston, Borenstein from
Washington.
      

New oil numbers may mean more environmental damage

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