Truck stocks signal recovery in US entering new growth phase

(Bloomberg) -- Companies that act as brokers for trucking services are gaining favor with investors as the 20- month-old rebound shifts into a new phase that's less dependent on inventory restocking.

The so-called asset-lite truckers such as Eden Prairie-based C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. and Roadrunner Transportation Systems Inc. lease vehicles for businesses that need to ship goods, so they have more cost flexibility than companies that own and operate most of their trucks. Shares of these brokers have risen 6.9 percent since July 30, 2010, compared with a 1.5 percent decline for operators including Celadon Group Inc. and Werner Enterprises Inc., according to two new Bloomberg indexes.

"We are way past the early cycle rally," and now see "sustainable elements to the recovery," said Benjamin Hartford, transportation analyst at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., who co-wrote Baird's 2011 freight-outlook report. As the rebound matures, investors will find "greater resiliency" in companies with flexible costs.

Trucking demand varies with the economy, accounting for 71 percent of the value, or $8.3 trillion, of U.S. goods shipped in 2007, according to the most recent data from the Department of Transportation.

EXPANDING ECONOMY

The U.S. economy likely will expand at a 3.2 percent rate this year, according to the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed in February by Bloomberg News, with exports and business spending on equipment and software poised to generate most of the growth, said Joseph Carson, director of economic research at AllianceBernstein LP in New York.

Inventory building aided economic growth for five consecutive quarters through the third period of 2010, when it contributed 1.61 percent to the 2.6 percent gain. When companies stopped adding to their stockpiles in the fourth quarter, the reduction subtracted 3.7 percent from growth, the most since the first quarter of 1988.

ADJUST EXPENDITURES

John Wiehoff, chief executive officer C.H. Robinson, said the broker's lower-cost model allows it to adjust expenditures rapidly in response to demand.

"We're very proud that we were able to manage through the recession with an earnings increase in each of the past two years," he said on a Feb. 1 conference call with investors. "We think that's a pretty visible statement about our business model."

Brokers like C.H. Robinson "have higher returns, very little debt and a lot of cash on the balance sheet," along with "more financial flexibility" and fewer capital-expenditure requirements, according to Kevin Sterling, an analyst in Richmond, Virginia, at BB&T Capital Markets. He said the firm is recommending investors purchase the Minnesota company and Roadrunner.

C.H. Robinson announced in December a 16 percent increase in its cash dividend to 29 cents a share. It had $398.6 million in cash at year-end, compared with $11.1 million for Celadon.

"The asset-lite guys can act countercyclically," said Peter Nesvold, managing director and senior equity research analyst in New York at Jefferies & Co. "As fundamentals start to improve, we have a long way we can ride."