Now would be a good time to reach out to North Korea

Richard C. Kagan is professor emeritus at Hamline University in St. Paul.

Death has taken Kim Jong Il at the "official" age 69. In the satirical movie "Team America," he was depicted as a fool who brought about his own worthless death. His real death was equally fantasized in the radio announcement from Pyongyang: It was due to "a great mental and physical strain caused by his uninterrupted field guidance tour for the building of a thriving nation."

The immediate successor is his son, Kim Jong Un. Thus does North Korea attempt to maintain the Kim family as the only hereditary Communist dynasty in the world. The child ruler is 27 years old and has never had full official responsibilities. After studying abroad, he returned to be anointed as the heir to his father's rule. To make him equal to the ruling elite he was appointed to the position of general of the armed forces and placed in the office of the National Defense Commission.

His rule depends on the heroic status of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, and his father, Kim Jong Il. He can maintain his connection to their status only if his relatives support him (at best) or do not try to destroy him (at worst).

Although it was general knowledge that Kim Jong Il was in poor health, it still came as a surprise to hear that he had succumbed on a train trip. This sudden vacuum of power has sounded a warning to Koreans (both North and South) and to allies and enemies. Even after years of studying the possible consequences of Kim's demise, there is still little that we can predict with any confidence.

Let's begin with China. Beijing has been prop, adviser and defender to its surly neighbor. China's immediate response probably will be to assure that aid will be forthcoming to a country that has endured long-term famine and economic collapse. This will not be an act of philanthropy. It will include pressuring the government to reform its economic system along the lines of China's. Pyongyang must allow for private industry and private capital to develop beyond its current narrow limits.

But China will not push North Korea to concede too much to American and Japanese pressure. China views Korea as a satellite that buffers Beijing from the nations of the Pacific. It has refused to join South Korea, America, Japan and Southeast Asia in condemning North Korea's military belligerence.

A North Korea implosion would greatly disrupt China. The flood of refugees into China's northeast provinces would create unsettling and unpredictable ethnic hostilities, economic burdens and diplomatic struggles. Furthermore, Beijing uses North Korea to assemble military weapons, and to engage secretly in research and trade with other regimes.

According to the Wall Street Journal's China outlet, Chinese bloggers have responded to Kim's demise with both happiness and fear. The happiness derives from the anti-Korean feeling that has long existed in China. And the fear is about the possibility that Beijing will have to support North Korea's economy and manage its refugees.

South Korea is similarly wary of having hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of starved refugees breaking across the border to seek welfare, food and housing. Seoul is also worried that the newly designated leader, "Dear" grandson Kim, is thoroughly incapable of running the government. He will save his skin only by collaborating with the military. And the military appears totally hawkish and unwilling to negotiate peace. There is a prayer, though, that a younger claque of military graduates will be more temperate and willing to accommodate South Korea's right to exist and its demands for the removal of the nuclear threat.

And this brings us to America's response. This will require heavy lifting. While the Japanese are pushing for the reconvening of the six-party talks, there is a real need to do something more timely.

During Kim Jong Il's reign, then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates declared that food aid would not be forthcoming if Kim continued to develop nuclear weapons. Now would be a time to look the other way and form a joint venture with China, and perhaps other Asian countries, to provide various aid projects. Pyongyang has long proven that it has no tolerance for outside pressures to reform. Now there is a chance to build ties to a new elite, a new generation to help convince the North Koreans to work with us.

In the words of Ionesco, "You can only predict things after they have happened." We must tread cautiously. But we must lead with our values and not with our fear.

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