When are students chaff — and when are they just not the right fit for a college?

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College admissions counselors I've spoken to and read about always seem to play down the importance of getting into a prestigious school and instead stress that students need to have the "right fit" with a college.
Ah, the "right fit." It sounds so warm and fuzzy and holistic.
But students -- and their anxious helicopter parents -- then read lines such as this in The Wall Street Journal:
Only 12% of applicants made it into Harvard Business School last year. It's Dee Leopold's job to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Ouch.
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