The Weather Lab: How meteorologists predict severe weather

Paul Huttner, MPR News chief meteorologist, remembers the storm of May 6, 1965 very clearly. He went outside and collected large pieces of hail with a football helmet on. He remembers the sound — the "thump" — the hail made when it hit his helmet.

Minnesota Department of Natural Resources climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld has pored over reports from that storm: Officially six tornadoes were reported. Blumenfeld thinks that was probably an underestimation, but doubts there will be any change to the records.

"It was a dangerous evening either way you look at it," he told Huttner.

For Severe Weather Awareness Week, Huttner, Blumenfeld and KARE 11 meteorologist Belinda Jensen gathered to discuss the difficulty of predicting severe weather.

Jensen was not around for the storm, but said it informs the way KARE covers major weather events. Weather coverage continues to change with the rise of social media and cameras on phones: Stations are seeing a dramatic rise in citizen reports.

"I think it's a double-edged sword," Jensen said. "We're going to get more reports. At the same time ... it's getting more dangerous, people are trying to take pictures."

When it comes to the upcoming season of severe weather, Jensen urged everyone to pay attention to weather alerts and warning.

"Whenever these watches come out and turn over to warnings, you really need to take heed and understand there's a number of different factors that cause issues," Jensen said.

Blumenfeld said multiple tornado storms, like the memorable storm in 1965 and another that struck St. Peter, Minn., in 1998, are fairly common in the Twin Cities. They can occur about every 15 to 20 years.

When pressed on whether the region is due for another, Blumenfeld said: "I don't think the weather keeps track like that, but yeah, more time has passed than you would expect."