Stakes high as DFL, GOP prep for weekend convention endorsement fights
Political convention season has arrived.
Congressional candidates in several districts and both parties hope to learn this weekend if they will be able to press on or need to pack up as Democratic and Republican loyalists decide endorsements.
The decisions will come in waves, with some hotly contested internal races coming to a head Saturday and more ahead over the next few weekends. Endorsements typically carry a lot of weight and can clear the field, but August primaries are also possible to determine the fall election matchups.
Which are the races to watch this Saturday?
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There are five conventions — two involving Republicans and three for the Democrats. But only the ones on the DFL side are true contests.
In Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, which hugs the Mississippi River from South St. Paul past Wabasha and stretches out toward Belle Plaine, the DFL is picking a challenger to freshman Republican Rep. Jason Lewis. The district has a narrow Republican bent, but Democrats are bullish this year.
Former medical device company executive and Eagan resident Angie Craig, who narrowly lost to Lewis in 2016, is after a rematch. But first she must get past fellow DFLer Jeff Erdmann, a high school government teacher and football coach from Rosemount. Craig has reassembled much of the support network she had last time, but Erdmann is hoping party activists want a fresh face.
In the 3rd Congressional District, a place where Republican Erik Paulsen for years has cut through political winds blowing against him, there is a spirited contest to take him on. Paulsen is a shoo-in for the endorsement at his party's convention on Saturday.
Business executive Dean Phillips has set a torrid fundraising pace for a challenger. Tonka Bay City Council member Adam Jennings is running to Phillips' left and has put considerable personal resources into his campaign.
Outside the metro
The 8th Congressional District race, involving a mammoth northern Minnesota district that Trump handily carried two years ago, is the most unpredictable of the bunch. Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan upended the race in February by announcing his planned retirement. That set up a five-way race to succeed him on the DFL end of the ballot.
Former federal agent Leah Phifer was attempting to topple Nolan and has been tilling ground in the race for many months. Latecomers to the race were: state Rep. Jason Metsa of Virginia, former state Rep. Joe Radinovich of Crosby, North Branch Mayor Kirsten Hagen Kennedy and former Duluth TV news anchor Michelle Lee. Of the three contested races this weekend, this one is the likeliest to go into overtime if one or more candidates decide they have a better shot in a primary.
Waiting on that outcome is St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber, who has a clear runway to the Republican endorsement and nomination.
The other Republican convention this weekend is in the 6th Congressional District, where Rep. Tom Emmer is seeking a third term.
Where will they be?
The conventions are at community centers or high schools in the various districts. Here are links to the locations of the conventions held this Saturday:
• Republican 3rd District Convention
• Republican 6th District Convention
And sorry, the rosters of participants are already decided. Party activists had to show up at caucuses followed by local conventions or be officeholders to be a delegate or alternate.
The conventions usually have a public seating area if you just want to take it in.
Party leaders and candidates are nervously watching the weather, fearful that an anticipated snowstorm could dampen participation and alter the outcome.
Why are the stakes so high?
Minnesota is home to at least four and maybe five nationally watched races for Congress.
It's an unprecedented year in that regard because most of the 435 congressional races around the country won't be competitive. Minnesota has eight seats in all.
Republicans are defending two seats — the ones occupied by Lewis and Paulsen — from a sure Democratic onslaught. Republicans believe they have a strong chance to flip seats in southern and northern Minnesota, the one Nolan is leaving and the one Rep. Tim Walz is giving up to run for governor.
Rep. Collin Peterson, the dean of the Minnesota delegation, has the distinction of being in the most pro-Trump district by a Democratic congressman. Trump won the 7th Congressional District by 31 percentage points, but Peterson has survived before and isn't on the endangered list so far.
What's ahead?
This weekend is just the start. There are district conventions every weekend between now and May 5.
Some of them will be coronations for candidates or incumbents without any real opposition.
The most interesting conventions come are on April 21, when Republicans and Democrats gather to endorse candidates in the 1st Congressional District in southern Minnesota.
Republican businessman and former federal employee Jim Hagedorn is seen as the favorite for his party's endorsement in what will be his fourth campaign for the seat. He lost twice to Walz, narrowly in 2016.
State Sen. Carla Nelson of Rochester is also running for the nomination but has kept open the possibility of running in the primary with or without the endorsement.
On the Democratic side, there are DFLers in realistic contention for the party backing. They are former Army ranger and ex-Defense Department official Dan Feehan, former state Sen. Vicki Jensen, renewable energy lawyer Joe Sullivan and attorney Rich Wright, who also has a military background.
Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated the number of times Jim Hagerdorn has run in the 1st District, this is his fourth time running.