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Super Tuesday is the biggest day of the Democratic primary campaign. Fourteen states will hold nominating contests to pick who they think should square off this fall against likely GOP nominee President Trump. 

There are 1,357 delegates at stake, about a third of all delegates. So far, fewer than 4 percent of the delegates have been allocated. 

People will head to the polls all across the country, from Virginia to California, Tennessee to Texas. The states and voters are diverse. Almost half have significant black populations, and Latinos figure to be an important factor in the two states with the biggest delegate hauls, California and Texas.

There's a lot on the line, especially for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden. 

. He's built a strong organization in these states that's been buoyed by a multimillion-dollar ad campaign. Biden is lagging, but hopes to ride a wave of momentum from his 

And then there's Mike Bloomberg. After spending hundreds of millions of dollars, Bloomberg will be on the ballot for the first time. Does he surprise and emerge as an alternative to Sanders, or will he siphon votes from Biden? And what impact might 

, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, have?

Here's what to watch for and what you should know about each of the Super Tuesday states, in order of most pledged delegates. (Note: American Samoa and Democrats living overseas are also voting on Tuesday.)

This is the most important state of Super Tuesday because of its size. Its 415 delegates is more than the nine Super Tuesday contests with the lowest delegate totals combined. 

, and if he runs up the score with them in California, he could be build a formidable pledged-delegate lead.

Sanders is the heavy favorite here, despite 

. He's spent about $7 million on ads (of the $15.5 million he's spent across Super Tuesday states), according to data as of Feb. 27 from Advertising Analytics provided to NPR. 

Biden has spent $0 on California TV ads, and 

for Biden is also that even though early voting started a month ago, fewer ballots have been returned than in past elections. 

Bloomberg, in contrast, has spent more than $71 million and is currently 

 required to get any delegates in all of these contests.

Warren is teetering around the delegate threshold percentage, too, with most polls conducted before South Carolina. Does she get above 15 percent? Does she pull from Sanders? Does Biden gain momentum from South Carolina? 

A wild card is black voters. There were no exit polls in 2016; 2008 exit polls showed black voters were 

 that African Americans are about 16 percent of the party. Do they turn out? Depending on which estimate winds up being correct could determine if Biden makes a dent in the state.

This will also be the first significant measure of Asian Americans in this election. They were 8% of the electorate in 2008, and the California Democratic Party estimates they are 10% now.

9 p.m. ET (Most polls close at 8 p.m. ET, but El Paso is in the Mountain time zone.)

Everything's bigger in Texas, including the delegate count. OK, it's not as big as California, but it's right up there. 

The race is shaping up to be closer than in California. 

 Sanders up by an average of 9 points over Biden. Bloomberg is the only other candidate averaging above the 15 percent threshold needed to get delegates, but whether he makes it is something to watch. Some polls have also shown Warren at or above the threshold, too.

This state has not always been friendly to Sanders. He 

 by more than 30 points in 2016. A number to watch on Tuesday is 33 percent, the percentage of the vote he got the last time around. 

Sanders struggled because Clinton had a fairly strong hold on voters of color, and Texas is expected to be a majority-minority electorate Tuesday. In 2016, it was 

, including 32 percent Latino and 19 percent black. 

Also key to watch is the age of the electorate that comes out. Sanders has had his biggest advantages with younger voters — and Biden with older voters. The numbers to watch: 20%, the percentage of the electorate in 2016 that was under 30; and 18%, the percentage over 65.

Biden's disadvantages here are advertising and early voting. He's only spent about $89,000 here compared to more than $3.7 million for Sanders. Early 

, until Friday, the day before Biden's boost in South Carolina. More than 

Sixty-one percent were also 45 and older. 

Both groups favor Biden, but the percentages of both are lower in North Carolina 

That means a narrower race between Biden and Sanders. 

Polls show Biden slightly ahead of Sanders

, and the only other candidate polling at or near threshold is Bloomberg, who has spent almost $15 million on ads in the state. Warren hasn't been over 15 percent in the state in almost two months.

Virginia, with its 7 p.m. ET poll-closing time, will give an early indication of whether moderate Democrats are coalescing around Biden. This is a place 

 of former Gov. Terry MacAuliffe and Sen. Tim Kaine, also a former governor.

Unite the Country, a super PAC supporting Biden, believes Biden is starting to do well not just with black voters but with white women over 40. The Virginia suburbs is the place to prove it.

, who were 36 percent of the electorate, in addition to blowing out the margins with black voters. She won 84 percent of African Americans, and they were about a quarter of the electorate.

There haven't been many good polls in Virginia. The last best one was a 

, which is a lifetime in a presidential primary race. It showed essentially a three-way tie between Sanders (22 percent), Bloomberg (22 percent), Biden (18 percent) — and it was conducted before 

 in Las Vegas, which was a spotty performance. 

This is Warren's home state, but Sanders is making a play here in this state where 85 percent of Democratic voters 

. Sanders is actually leading very narrowly 

. But with no one else polling above threshold — and with former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg 

 — Sanders and Warren may split the delegates evenly here.

Another home-state advantage here, this time for Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar has struggled after her surprise 

, but she has fizzled since. Minnesota could be her last stand Tuesday night.

There hasn't been a lot of polling, but what does exist shows Klobuchar 

. She was ahead of Sanders by single digits in polling from a couple weeks ago. Warren was around the threshold. They're the only candidates likely to get delegates out of Minnesota.

This is one of the three states where Latinos could make a difference. Colorado 

 and no entrance polls in 2016, so who will turn out is a bit of a wild card. 

 that Latinos could be as many as 1-in-5 voters.

 in the swing state that now leans blue shows Sanders with a lead and Warren the only other candidate above threshold. But the poll was taken before South Carolina, and with Buttigieg out, it's possible Biden ekes out some delegates.

Remarkably, Bloomberg has spent almost $10 million on 

 and could get shut out of any delegates.

This is the state where Biden has invested most in ads on Super Tuesday (even though it's only $157,000 and is less than half of what Sanders has put in). 

 of state's Democratic electorate was black in 2016. 

Biden is hoping to run up the score here, especially with wealth venture capitalist Tom Steyer out of the way. Steyer, who was competing for black voters, spent $600,000 on ads in Tennessee. 

 after finishing third in South Carolina with just 11 percent and no delegates after spending almost $24 million on ads there.

This is the most heavily African American Democratic electorate of Super Tuesday. 

 of Alabama Democrats in the 2016 primary were black. Biden hopes to run up the score here and perhaps deny any other candidate delegates.

This state has the highest share of white voters without a college degree of any of the Super Tuesday states. They accounted for 

 of Democratic voters in the 2016 primary. It's a group Sanders has done well with during the first four contests this year. And in 2016, he won the Oklahoma primary by 

Biden showed improvement with white voters without a college degree in South Carolina. He has to hope to do better with them and that black voters, who accounted for 14 percent of the 2016 primary electorate, give him an overwhelming margin. 

There has been very sparse polling. The latest, conducted about two weeks ago and before the Las Vegas debate, showed Biden 

 with Bloomberg, who has spent a whopping $5.3 million in the state. Sanders was teetering on the threshold line. 

Warren was below the threshold line; it would be pretty remarkable if she gets no delegates from the state where she was born and raised.

 to Oklahoma, but it had a higher share of the electorate that was black in 2016 — 27 percent of Arkansas Democrats were black, and 34 percent were whites without a college degree. 

 at the beginning of February, again before the Las Vegas debate, that showed Bloomberg and Biden statistically tied with about a fifth of the vote, and Sanders and Buttigieg around the threshold line. A lot will likely change from that.

 that Latinos account for 14 percent of the party in this very white state.

 has Sanders ahead with 28 percent, Bloomberg at 19 percent, Warren 15 percent and Biden below the 15 percent threshold for delegates. The poll was conducted after the Las Vegas debate, but Bloomberg 

, and campaigns will tell you, there's no more valuable thing during a campaign than a candidate's time.

Maine is the whitest state to vote on Super Tuesday — 

 that 96 percent of the party is white. Sanders, the New Englander, 

 conducted the second week of February with about a quarter of the vote, followed by Buttigieg and Bloomberg. 

Where does Buttigieg's support go now that he's out of the race? It could very well go to Warren, who was competing with him for white voters with college degrees. Biden was slightly below the threshold, making this another state where Biden could get shut out.

NPR news assistant Elena Moore contributed to this report.

Politics and Government News

Election 2020

Domenico Montanaro

Author

Fourteen states, a third of all delegates and an emerging race between Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden. Here's what to know about the 2020 contests.

Your state-by-state guide to Super Tuesday

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