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 from the University of Washington’s School of Medicine lowered the estimate of Minnesotans who could die from COVID-19 through August from around 2,000 to 632. 

But at a Monday press briefing, Gov. Tim Walz said he considers that projection “

.” Early models produced by the University of Minnesota had a much higher figure: up to 50,000 deaths over the course of 12 months.

Why the discrepancy? What about medical modeling makes this difficult?

On Wednesday, MPR News’ Kerri Miller spoke with two experts about what medical modeling can tell us — and what it can’t.

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We all want answers. How many people could die from COVID-19? And how long will we have to live socially isolated? Leaders use medical models to guide their directives. But the models don’t all say the same thing. Why is this so hard? 

MPR News with Kerri Miller - Medical modeling

Medical modeling: Trying to predict the future of a pandemic

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