Weekend forecast: Arctic cold and dangerous wind chills

Snow chance favors southern Minnesota Saturday morning

We’re running out of ways to say “cold”.

After warmer than normal temps in Nov., Dec. and Jan., this extended stretch of cold weather is challenging. I’ll go through the details of our arctic weekend forecast, then I’ll give you an update on the much milder temps that are expected next Thursday and Friday.

First, lets get our snow chances out of the way.

Friday night and Saturday morning flake chance

Southern Minnesota will have a chance of light snow late Friday night and early Saturday morning.

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern for Friday evening through Saturday morning:

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Simulated radar Friday evening through Saturday morning
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

The southern edge of the Twin Cities metro may be clipped with a light dusting of snow Saturday morning, with a flurry chance elsewhere in the metro area. Accumulations in far southern Minnesota are expected to be one inch or less.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR network, and you’ll see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Wind chill warnings and advisories in many areas

It’s very cold right now, and wind chills are coldest in northern Minnesota.

Wind chill warnings remain in effect this Friday through much of the weekend in northwestern Minnesota:

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Wind chill warnings and advisories continue until noon on Sunday
National Weather Service

Here are details of the wind chill warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 336 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 MNZ001>009-013>017-022-023-027>029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030- 038-039-049-052>054-141800- /O.CON.KFGF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210214T1800Z/ West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 336 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 55 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Wind chill advisories also continue through Sunday morning in northeastern Minnesota.

Wind chill advisories continue this Friday and through Saturday morning in central Minnesota and far southeastern Minnesota:

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Wind chill advisories
National Weather Service

Additional wind chill warnings and advisories are expected this weekend, especially Saturday night and Sunday.

Weekend temperature and wind chill details

Low temps late Friday night and early Saturday will be coldest to the north:

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Saturday forecast lows
National Weather Service

Saturday highs stay below zero in most areas:

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Saturday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Parts of the Twin Cities metro area could briefly touch zero degrees Saturday afternoon. That’s 28 degrees colder than our average Twin Cities high on Feb. 13!

Low temps Saturday night and early Sunday approach 30 below zero in parts of northern Minnesota:

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Sunday forecast lows
National Weather Service

Some of the outer suburbs in the metro area could drop to minus 20 degrees or colder Sunday morning.

Weekend wind chills will be coldest late Saturday night and early Sunday morning:

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Coldest wind chills forecast for Saturday night/Sunday morning
National Weather Service

Sunday noon forecast wind chills are in the 30s below zero in many areas, with 20s below zero in the metro area and west-central Wisconsin:

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Sunday noon forecast wind chills
National Weather Service

Sunday high temps stay below zero in all areas:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

This will probably be our coldest Valentine’s Day high temp in the Twin Cities in the past 100 years or so:

The coldest Feb. 14 high temp in Twin Cities weather records is negative 5, set in 1920. We’ll see if we tie or break that record!

When does the arctic cold air leave?

Monday will be very cold, then we’ll see a gradual improvement in our temps on Tuesday and Wednesday. Twin Cities metro area highs could hit 20 degrees on Thursday and 30 next Friday. That would feel great!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.