Paul Huttner with weather details for July 13, 2022

INTERVIEWER: It's been a warm and muggy summer week. And of course, I was talking about that wild video with the cloud that looked like a tidal wave creeping across the Twin Cities. Here to talk about all of this and more, NPR's Chief Meteorologist, Paul Huttner. Hey, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey. Cathy. Good to hear you, I guess, see you as always. What a night.

INTERVIEWER: Wow.

PAUL HUTTNER: What a photogenic sky last night.

INTERVIEWER: Oh my gosh, very cool. And I think I probably screwed up with the shelf cloud versus a wall cloud. So that was a shelf cloud. How did it form?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, you nailed it, by the way, in the description. It was a shelf cloud. And shelf clouds form usually at the leading edge of thunderstorms. That rain cooled air, that kind of downdraft at the front edge of the storm causes condensation, so it makes that very sort of definite shelf cloud lowering at the front edge of the cloud with the gust front.

So that's what we saw kind of rotate into the Twin Cities last night. And it was just an awesome scene, of course, with the sunset behind it and the gray to green skies. Interesting to note, that storm was really just borderline severe. They issued a warning for it, but I checked the reports. There were no large hail or high winds above 58 miles an hour, which is severe criteria, but just an incredible what we call UFO style shelf cloud rolling into the Twin Cities last night.

INTERVIEWER: Yeah. I did not know that we are nearly halfway through meteorological summer.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, Saturday, July 16, roughly the halfway point of the midpoint of June, July, and August, which we call meteorological summer. And Cathy, it's been warm. June was 3 degrees, 3.3 warmer than average in the Twin Cities, July running 2.4 degrees warmer. Most of Minnesota were about 2 to 3 degrees warmer than average.

But we're dry in many areas. Rain, we're about an inch below average in the Twin Cities for July, and interesting to note that we've had 30 days of 90 degree or warmer temperatures. That is already average for the entire year. So we're running ahead on the heat, and that one day, of course, of 100, which everybody remembers in the Twin Cities. That was the first day in four years, Cathy.

INTERVIEWER: I'm wondering about the heat wave, then, coming up. Doesn't it start Friday, Saturday into next week?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we'll ramp up a little bit this weekend. I think Sunday is the first day when you're really going to say, it's hot out there. Here's what's happening. There's this big heat dome over the Western US. It's 100 as far north as places like Idaho, Washington State. And the core of that heat is going to just kind of topple east toward Minnesota early next week.

The real core of it, 100 plus, I think, Kansas, Nebraska, parts of South Dakota. Western Minnesota could see 100 next week. We'll be on the eastern edge of this. Twin Cities, I think probably four days of 90s, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, around 90 Sunday, 94 Monday, maybe 96 Wednesday, the European model today coming out with 98 to 99 degrees for next Tuesday in the Twin Cities, so about four days of 90s, but those dew points, upper 60s, low 70s. Cathy, I'm going to have to issue a weather lab Wurzer weather warning, peak Wurzer weather next week.

INTERVIEWER: Yes, it will be. It will be. It may be hot enough even for Wurzer. I don't know. Let's talk a little bit about the crispy lawns and the lack of rain in terms of the crops now. You drive by, they look OK. They look OK. But I know some areas really do need the rain.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yes.

INTERVIEWER: So when you look at your crystal ball there, what about rain?

PAUL HUTTNER: I'll tell you what, it's interesting, because it's patchwork as usual in summer in Minnesota. So Southern Minnesota has had good rains in the last 10 days, 2 to 5 inches that tier of counties from Mankato south. That's Blue Earth County south to the Iowa border. But you get north of that, 1 to 2 inches Southwest Twin Cities, Carver County, my untrained suburban kid eye says the corn looks good here in Carver County. But I think you get west and north, it is trending dry, especially Highway 212 west of the Twin Cities and then north into Central Minnesota.

So we need about an inch a week this year to stay on average. It looks like our best chance is Thursday night Friday morning for those areas to get some thunderstorms that could potentially dump an inch of rain. But Cathy, with that heat coming in next week, overall the forecast model is saying maybe an inch of rain or so or less over the next week to 10 days. So we may be trending into kind of a dry pattern here. We want to get some more rain for those farmers, especially during this critical time in late July.

INTERVIEWER: By the way, speaking of late July, mid to late July, is this the time of the year when we get more nighttime storms?

PAUL HUTTNER: We do. And it's called nocturnal thunderstorm season. What happens, Cathy, is as the nights start to get a little longer, we get all this heat near the surface, the air cools aloft more at night, and we can get this unstable atmosphere, where these storms can pop up after midnight, 2:00, 3:00, 4:00 AM. And we often get these overnight storms or sunrise surprise, as we like to call them. So we're hopeful. We'll watch for that as we head through the next couple of weeks. By the way, the next two weeks the hottest two weeks of the year climatologically in Minnesota. So get ready for it. Here it comes.

INTERVIEWER: And I love nighttime thunderstorms.

PAUL HUTTNER: Me too.

INTERVIEWER: The only problem, of course, if they are severe, then it gets a little dicey, obviously, as you know.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, that's why you have a NOAA weather radio or your phone nearby, hopefully.

INTERVIEWER: That is correct, my friend. I hope you have a great rest of the day. Thanks much.

PAUL HUTTNER: You too, pleasure to talk with you, Cathy. Thanks.

INTERVIEWER: Likewise. Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. By the way he joins, Paul Huttner, every afternoon on All Things Considered right here on NPR News.