Paul Huttner's forecast for the first week of fall

CATHY WURZER: If you are still enjoying the summer flowers and maybe your little veggie garden, well, good for you. But, friends, tomorrow is the first day of meteorological fall. I know. I don't know how that happened either.

Here to tell us more about what to expect in the coming few weeks is NPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner. I feel sad today. I'm just going to say that out loud.

PAUL HUTTNER: You know, and I hear you. I'm savoring this last day of meteorological summer. It's gorgeous out there. It's 84 degrees. The dew point's 56. So it's comfortable. It's a beautiful day, and let's just hang on to that for a few more hours.

CATHY WURZER: OK. I will do that with you. We will toast summer as it leaves. By the way, why do meteorology-- I can't even get that word out of my mouth-- why do weather people use meteorological seasons instead of astronomical seasons?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. That's a great question. And we use the months of September, October, and November as meteorological fall. Meteorological seasons, they're cleaner for record-keeping. They better match the seasonal weather and climate. Also, the dates, Cathy, of the astronomical seasons, as you know, change a little bit slightly from year to year. The solstice and the equinox don't always fall on the same day of the month.

So that messes things up. So it's a much better reflection of the actual seasonal weather to use these meteorological seasons. And it's interesting to note, when you talk about fall in Minnesota, Climate Central has run the numbers-- fall is the second-fastest warming season in Minnesota. Winter's number one. But falls in Minnesota since 1970 on average have warmed 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit across the state. Winter's warmed about 5 degrees on average. So we've trended towards some milder falls in the last few decades.

CATHY WURZER: I noted on Twitter that our friends from the National Weather Service office in the Twin Cities were trolling people with pictures of the office bathed in snow. So let's talk about the winter outlook. What do we think-- is it too early to see anything trending for the winter season in Minnesota?

PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, there are some signals. This La Nina that we've been in for two years is entering a third year. That's pretty rare. But NOAA forecasting a La Nina event. Well, what does that mean for Minnesota?

Generally it means with that cold water in the Pacific, it affects jet stream patterns. We call those tell connections in the atmosphere. And that can favor a Northwest flow for Minnesota in winter, which tends to skew colder, potentially snowier-- about 70% to 80% of winters statistically.

But here's the interesting part of this winter. The forecast is for those ocean temperatures to warm up next spring, maybe an El Nino next year. That might mean that we have a little milder transition out of winter and into spring next year. We just got clobbered this last year in March and April with cold weather and snow. So maybe we'll have an easier end to winter for a change and an earlier spring, which would certainly be nice.

CATHY WURZER: It would be nice. So as we say goodbye to summer here, what does the Labor Day holiday weekend forecast look like?

PAUL HUTTNER: A good-looking forecast if you like sunshine and very pleasant temperatures. Now, we'll get close to 90 tomorrow again. I think we'll hit 90-- places like Appleton, Madison, Western Minnesota. 89 in the Twin Cities, maybe 90 in some of the Western suburbs. Friday, a cool front still on the warm side of it, about 88, isolated thunderstorm.

And then a little cooler and pleasant into the weekend. Should be great weather out at the fair-- mid to upper-70s for highs, 60s in Northern Minnesota. Were back in the 80s by Labor Day, and near 90 again next week, potentially, Cathy. NOAA's outlook's calling for warmer than average temperatures maybe right into mid-September this year. So meteorological fall could get off to a warm start.

CATHY WURZER: Say, before you go, I noted that you were at the state fair EV Garage this week. Is that for the Climate Cast?

PAUL HUTTNER: It is. We had a great visit yesterday with Stephen Mickelson from the MPCA and talked about electric vehicles there. They have some really cool vehicles I saw and got to get into the new Ford Lightning 150 truck. They had a really cool Mustang Mach-E. So we talked to Stephen, and some EV owners, and some of the folks visiting the fair about what they're thinking about EVs here as the adoption rate goes higher as we go forward.

CATHY WURZER: And you can get the Climate Cast wherever you get your podcasts.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. And it'll be on live ATC tomorrow between 3:00 and 6:00.

CATHY WURZER: Perfect. Paul Huttner, thank you.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: Paul is our chief meteorologist.