Winter is over — sort of. Paul Huttner has the lowdown on the first day of meteorological spring.
Winter precipitation for the Twin Cities compared to the records and normal
National Weather Service
Much of the upper Midwest has been seeing exceptional rain and snow levels this winter.
MPR Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner talks with Cathy Wurzer about snow totals and temperature records this season.
And on the first day of meteorological spring, Huttner has a detailed forecast and a spring flood update.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation. Subscribe to the Minnesota Now podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
We attempt to make transcripts for Minnesota Now available the next business day after a broadcast. When ready they will appear here.
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Audio transcript
CATHY: So if you've been wondering, is it just me, or has this winter been wetter than usual? It's not just you. Much of the upper Midwest has been seeing exceptional rain and snow levels. And today, of course, is adding to those totals across Minnesota. MPR's Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner is here to break down this latest snowfall and give us a glimpse into March.
Hey, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy. And yes, of course, it is March. This is one of the tougher months in Minnesota. I know you remember our esteemed legendary news colleague Dave Moore from WCCO TV. He has a famous quote he says, "Make no big decisions in March in Minnesota."
CATHY: That is so true. He was very smart.
PAUL HUTTNER: Very smart man. And March can be a tough month for all of us. But hey, happy meteorological spring anyway from the weather lab. And you're right about the snow, and it is snowing heavily up around Duluth to Harbors, down by 35 to about Cloquet, almost to Moose Lake. Duluth has already had 3 inches of snow, thereabouts, and they're going to get about 3 to 6 by the time it's done.
The snow will continue pretty vigorously from about, well, east of Grand Rapids down Highway 2 into Duluth through the afternoon before it tapers off a little later this afternoon. But Cathy even though we've only had some snizzle and a little light snow in the Twin Cities, less than an inch for most of us. 2 inches Ham Lake and Ramsey in the northern Twin Cities in Lindstrom, and this has been super productive as a snow system further north. North Branch 2 and 1/2 rise. In Onamia, about 3 and 1/2. Fort Ripley, up around Brainerd, 3.7.
Then you get up to Malacca and Long Prairie 4 inches. Uppsala, 5 inches. Detroit Lakes has had 6. Park Rapids, 7 and 1/2 and the Fargo-Moorhead area has had a foot of snow with this system. So, that winter storm warning fades at 3 for the Fargo area, closer to 6:00 PM in Duluth, Cathy.
CATHY: Wow. OK. So that does add to the snowfall totals, doesn't it?
PAUL HUTTNER: It does
CATHY: So when you look at the winter season thus far, and of course, as you say, we're heading into March, which is usually pretty snowy, how do we know where we are right now because I keep losing track of it? Where the Twin Cities happens to be when it comes to all time snowfall?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah we do, and my notes are messy but bear with me here. So Twin Cities has had 71 inches of snow our average for the season is 72. So we're already the 17th snowiest winter on record that's before any snow we add in today. And if you look at moisture around Minnesota, around the upper Midwest. The Dakotas really into the northern Rockies but also most of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, this is the wettest winter on record in terms of liquid moisture. Second wettest in the Twin Cities but over the region the wettest on record 6.45 inches of liquid in the Twin Cities since December 1st liquid equivalent. That's 3 and 1/2 inches above average, Cathy.
So we're denting the drought. We're knocking it back a category or two, and it's not your imagination. It's been super wet out there. Keep in mind, and I know you know this, that we still average a foot of snow during March and April in the Twin Cities. So another seven inches or so would bump us into the top 10, so this has been a really prolific winter for snowfall.
CATHY: And just strange. You mentioned the liquid that we've seen, the rain. We've had what, three different rain events?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, we've had three different rain events, and I know you chat with Mark Seeley every week. He has stressed this over the years, the incidence of winter rain and ice in Minnesota, in the Twin Cities, has tripled in about the last 30 years. So we're seeing these more frequent rainfall events, ice events in our winters. It used to be snow 40, 50, 60 years ago, but our climate has warmed an average of 5 degrees in winter in Minnesota.
So that's why some of these systems come in. We're seeing these temperatures like today, where it's 33, 34, 36 degrees. That's warm enough for rain instead of snow.
CATHY: Oh. And of course, most of us would prefer the snow instead of the ice. Is just so difficult to deal with, right? OK. So I am going to assume, I should not do that. But I will assume that the wet winter has juiced the latest spring flood outlook, right?
PAUL HUTTNER: It has, and they updated this in the last week or so. They've called it big changes in the spring flood update. They've gone from a normal outlook to an above normal flood risk for most of the rivers in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Minnesota River, Mississippi, the Saint Croix. Cathy, there's 2 to 5 inches of what they call snow water equivalent. All that water sitting in that snow pack around Minnesota, Western Wisconsin, 2 and 1/2 in the Twin Cities. Five in Glencoe just West of the Twin Cities. Five plus Heyward Rice Lake, Western Wisconsin.
So, that's the 80th to 90th percentile of water in that snow pack out there for the last 70 years or so. So think of that as a 2 to 5 inch rainstorm sitting on the ground waiting to melt, and then if we get a slow melt, great. The soil's frost is shallow, some of it might soak in, but if we get a quick melt and we get rain on top of that, they're saying there's a higher than average chance of moderate to potentially even major flooding now. So we're really going to have to watch to see how March unfolds.
You know how this might work, Cathy. When it's cold and snowy for the first half of March and then we get that first big shot of warm air and maybe some thunderstorms, that would be the worst scenario for spring flooding. So we're now going to have to keep a really close eye on this as we head through the next six to eight weeks.
CATHY: OK. I know we will. So how about the weekend forecast? Does it look too bad?
PAUL HUTTNER: It doesn't look too bad. Mainly '30s from tomorrow right through Sunday. Little light chance of maybe some more snizzle, rain, or snow light Sunday into Monday, but overall not too bad and quieter as we head into the weekend.
CATHY: And before we go, what's on Climate Cast this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we are going to talk about, speaking of winters and record highs and record lows. We're going to talk to a meteorologist who tracks that. Like the number of record highs versus record lows. The number of record highs is like 3 to 1 over the last decade or two in the United States. So what does that tell us about climate change? Not just that the averages are changing, but that the number of record highs is far outpacing the number of new record lows. You'd expect that to be balanced, in a balanced climate, it's not. So we'll have that tomorrow on climate casts.
CATHY: All right, my friend. Thank you so much.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy, my pleasure.
CATHY: That was MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, with the latest. You can stay up-to-date with the updraft blog, nprnewsandviews.org.
Hey, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Cathy. And yes, of course, it is March. This is one of the tougher months in Minnesota. I know you remember our esteemed legendary news colleague Dave Moore from WCCO TV. He has a famous quote he says, "Make no big decisions in March in Minnesota."
CATHY: That is so true. He was very smart.
PAUL HUTTNER: Very smart man. And March can be a tough month for all of us. But hey, happy meteorological spring anyway from the weather lab. And you're right about the snow, and it is snowing heavily up around Duluth to Harbors, down by 35 to about Cloquet, almost to Moose Lake. Duluth has already had 3 inches of snow, thereabouts, and they're going to get about 3 to 6 by the time it's done.
The snow will continue pretty vigorously from about, well, east of Grand Rapids down Highway 2 into Duluth through the afternoon before it tapers off a little later this afternoon. But Cathy even though we've only had some snizzle and a little light snow in the Twin Cities, less than an inch for most of us. 2 inches Ham Lake and Ramsey in the northern Twin Cities in Lindstrom, and this has been super productive as a snow system further north. North Branch 2 and 1/2 rise. In Onamia, about 3 and 1/2. Fort Ripley, up around Brainerd, 3.7.
Then you get up to Malacca and Long Prairie 4 inches. Uppsala, 5 inches. Detroit Lakes has had 6. Park Rapids, 7 and 1/2 and the Fargo-Moorhead area has had a foot of snow with this system. So, that winter storm warning fades at 3 for the Fargo area, closer to 6:00 PM in Duluth, Cathy.
CATHY: Wow. OK. So that does add to the snowfall totals, doesn't it?
PAUL HUTTNER: It does
CATHY: So when you look at the winter season thus far, and of course, as you say, we're heading into March, which is usually pretty snowy, how do we know where we are right now because I keep losing track of it? Where the Twin Cities happens to be when it comes to all time snowfall?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah we do, and my notes are messy but bear with me here. So Twin Cities has had 71 inches of snow our average for the season is 72. So we're already the 17th snowiest winter on record that's before any snow we add in today. And if you look at moisture around Minnesota, around the upper Midwest. The Dakotas really into the northern Rockies but also most of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, this is the wettest winter on record in terms of liquid moisture. Second wettest in the Twin Cities but over the region the wettest on record 6.45 inches of liquid in the Twin Cities since December 1st liquid equivalent. That's 3 and 1/2 inches above average, Cathy.
So we're denting the drought. We're knocking it back a category or two, and it's not your imagination. It's been super wet out there. Keep in mind, and I know you know this, that we still average a foot of snow during March and April in the Twin Cities. So another seven inches or so would bump us into the top 10, so this has been a really prolific winter for snowfall.
CATHY: And just strange. You mentioned the liquid that we've seen, the rain. We've had what, three different rain events?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yes, we've had three different rain events, and I know you chat with Mark Seeley every week. He has stressed this over the years, the incidence of winter rain and ice in Minnesota, in the Twin Cities, has tripled in about the last 30 years. So we're seeing these more frequent rainfall events, ice events in our winters. It used to be snow 40, 50, 60 years ago, but our climate has warmed an average of 5 degrees in winter in Minnesota.
So that's why some of these systems come in. We're seeing these temperatures like today, where it's 33, 34, 36 degrees. That's warm enough for rain instead of snow.
CATHY: Oh. And of course, most of us would prefer the snow instead of the ice. Is just so difficult to deal with, right? OK. So I am going to assume, I should not do that. But I will assume that the wet winter has juiced the latest spring flood outlook, right?
PAUL HUTTNER: It has, and they updated this in the last week or so. They've called it big changes in the spring flood update. They've gone from a normal outlook to an above normal flood risk for most of the rivers in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Minnesota River, Mississippi, the Saint Croix. Cathy, there's 2 to 5 inches of what they call snow water equivalent. All that water sitting in that snow pack around Minnesota, Western Wisconsin, 2 and 1/2 in the Twin Cities. Five in Glencoe just West of the Twin Cities. Five plus Heyward Rice Lake, Western Wisconsin.
So, that's the 80th to 90th percentile of water in that snow pack out there for the last 70 years or so. So think of that as a 2 to 5 inch rainstorm sitting on the ground waiting to melt, and then if we get a slow melt, great. The soil's frost is shallow, some of it might soak in, but if we get a quick melt and we get rain on top of that, they're saying there's a higher than average chance of moderate to potentially even major flooding now. So we're really going to have to watch to see how March unfolds.
You know how this might work, Cathy. When it's cold and snowy for the first half of March and then we get that first big shot of warm air and maybe some thunderstorms, that would be the worst scenario for spring flooding. So we're now going to have to keep a really close eye on this as we head through the next six to eight weeks.
CATHY: OK. I know we will. So how about the weekend forecast? Does it look too bad?
PAUL HUTTNER: It doesn't look too bad. Mainly '30s from tomorrow right through Sunday. Little light chance of maybe some more snizzle, rain, or snow light Sunday into Monday, but overall not too bad and quieter as we head into the weekend.
CATHY: And before we go, what's on Climate Cast this week?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we are going to talk about, speaking of winters and record highs and record lows. We're going to talk to a meteorologist who tracks that. Like the number of record highs versus record lows. The number of record highs is like 3 to 1 over the last decade or two in the United States. So what does that tell us about climate change? Not just that the averages are changing, but that the number of record highs is far outpacing the number of new record lows. You'd expect that to be balanced, in a balanced climate, it's not. So we'll have that tomorrow on climate casts.
CATHY: All right, my friend. Thank you so much.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Cathy, my pleasure.
CATHY: That was MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, with the latest. You can stay up-to-date with the updraft blog, nprnewsandviews.org.
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