Another storm is on the horizon, plus more of this week's weather news

TIM: So far, this week, we've had a break from the snow. It's been cold, mostly sunny, but that's going to change in the next few days. We're going to talk with our chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, to get the details. Hi, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey, Tim. I'm getting frequent flier miles this season, with all these storms. [LAUGHS] This started, what, December? And we've had almost a storm every week throughout the winter season. Seems like a lot of them have happened on Wednesdays, too, when I'm talking to you or Cathy.

TIM: Yeah. The Saint Patrick's Day storm here, forecast model has been kind of-- I've been listening to [INAUDIBLE] split on this possible storm. What's the latest model read, as of today? Any consensus on rain or snow, where that's going to happen, yet?

PAUL HUTTNER: Not as much as I'd like to see. This is another one of these low-confidence storms. It's interesting, Tim, because earlier in the winter, December, January, the models were pretty locked in on these storms and with a lot of consensus, but less so, the last two or three storms. Here's the way this lays out today, the latest model runs that just came in through the midday hour here, that I'm looking at. First of all, everybody should know, winter storm watch from Southwest Minnesota, Marshall, Worthington, up through Willmar, Mankato, the Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Brainerd, Hinckley, and then on up into the North Shore, includes Northwest Wisconsin. That's for tomorrow.

Here's how this will lay out. We'll see rain actually develop tomorrow morning, Southwest Minnesota, move into the Twin Cities pretty early. Mostly light rain, but it'll pick up a little as the morning goes on. And then the cold air is going to get here, and that rain will quickly change over to maybe some sleet, maybe a little brief period of ice mixed in, and then snow. And that looks like it will happen between about the noon hour and 1:00. So about this time tomorrow, we could see that transition from rain to snow in the Twin Cities. And then it will be all snow, after that, through the afternoon, into the evening.

Now here's the deal. It's going to be, again, above freezing tomorrow afternoon in the Twin Cities, as it was for the last couple of storms. So some of this snow may melt on contact, at first, again, but then I think the rates will pick up later in the afternoon, into the evening. So it will start to accumulate.

How much snow? I'm not as impressed as the Weather Service with this system right now. I'm thinking-- the models I'm seeing are seeing as little as 2 inches to maybe as much as 5. Some saying 6 for the Twin Cities. So I'm thinking 2 to 5 might be a good range. But I do think the snow will be heavier when you go north, North Metro, and then when you get up by I-35, Hinckley to Duluth, that's where 6 to 12 inches looks more likely. North Shore, even, 8 to 12 inches.

TIM: Ooh.

PAUL HUTTNER: So it's going to be heavy snow. Yeah, like Duluth and the North Shore need any more snow. Two Harbors looks like the Sierras lately, these days. So that's where the storm will be heavy. And one more thing. It will come with wind. So when it is snowing, I do think we're going to see a period, late tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow evening-- it's going to be pretty rough out there, wind-driven snow, heavy snow accumulating, before this all pulls out of here sometime late tomorrow night.

TIM: Yeah, and Duluth, I saw the last there, up above 114 inches. The Miller Hill Mall roof was on the floor, covered with snow. They're really getting it.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, 116.4 is the latest tally I saw, Tim. That's 9.7 feet of snow that Duluth has had this winter.

TIM: [LAUGHS]

PAUL HUTTNER: That is the ninth snowiest on record for them. We've had 80 inches in the Twin Cities, 80.3. That's the eighth snowiest winter on record. Those go back to 1884, those records. We're 36 inches above average in the Twin Cities. And if we get an inch with this, and I think we will, we'll go into the number seven spot. 4.6 inches would put us into the fifth snowiest winter in the Twin Cities. I don't know if we'll quite get there, but it could be close.

TIM: And what about this weekend?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, quieter, chilly, windy, some snow showers. Saturday, we're in the 20s. Sunday, sunny, lighter winds, we're in the 30s. But, hey, I might have some good news for next week, if folks are looking for milder weather.

TIM: Oh, I'd love to hear that. I am ready. I am-- I'm done with the shoveling. I'm done with the snow blowing. What do you got for us?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, and I'm getting-- you're not alone. I'm getting a lot of that. People are just done, this winter. Look, it looks quiet, Monday, Tuesday. And we're going to be in the 40s, I think. We'll see some sun, low to mid 40s. Then maybe mid to upper 40s, Wednesday, into Thursday. A couple of models saying, Tim, we could hit 50 in the Twin Cities or Southern Minnesota next Thursday. Might be a little rain with that, but the trend definitely, definitely milder as we head through the middle of next week.

TIM: 50? I'm going to break out the shorts.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, possibly.

TIM: And give us a little preview of Climate Cast this week. What's on tap?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah a new report came out with the University of Minnesota and an architectural firm, HGA, about sustainable building. And what they found is huge opportunities because if you think about it, all of our buildings that you see in the Cities, even your homes, were all built for a previous climate. But they've quantified how much energy, how much money could be saved, what the greenhouse gas savings would be for new buildings built for our new climate. So Heidi Roop, with the University of Minnesota, and Ariane Laxo, who's with that architecture firm, HGA, talked to them, and we'll talk to them all about that report, tomorrow, on Climate Cast, during All Things Considered.

TIM: Fantastic. That's MPR chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner. Thanks so much, Paul.

PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Tim.