Central and Southeast Minnesota face 'extreme' drought conditions

[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: As you heard, those storms did a fair amount of damage. On the plus side, some areas got a helpful dose of rain. But overall, the state's drought condition is becoming more desperate as we deal with another year of what's called a flash drought.

Since last week, drought conditions in spots of central and southeastern Minnesota have moved from severe to extreme. Here to explain the latest drought monitor is assistant state climatologist Pete Boulay. Hey, Pete. Welcome.

PETE BOULAY: I'm glad to be here, Cathy.

CATHY WURZER: Thanks for joining us. Well, you looked at that drought monitor report this morning, and you said what?

PETE BOULAY: Well, the drought is continuing to get worse yet again. Here we are again.

CATHY WURZER: Oh, and what does it mean to be an extreme rather than severe drought?

PETE BOULAY: It's up another level of drought. An extreme drought is you start seeing more effects on not just a lack of precipitation. For instance, now the St. Cloud area is in extreme drought, and the Sauk River is at the one percentile. So about as low as we've seen it, as about as low as we saw it last year, too.

So streams are getting lower. The Mississippi is falling. We're starting to see more effects. The lakes are going down. The Gray's Bay dam is now closed at Lake Minnetonka. So as we continue to move through the next stage of drought, we're seeing more effects.

CATHY WURZER: So, Pete, it's tough to break out of a drought, right? I mean, drought begets drought. So how bad can it get?

PETE BOULAY: Well, it's funny. Every drought is a little bit different. No two droughts are alike. And this is the third year we've had a drought in Minnesota that's been fairly significant. And it's interesting that the 2021 drought focused in the north all went away, the drought from last year, 2022. We had the really wet winter into spring, and that one went away.

And now here we are again with a brand new drought kind of in a little bit different area yet again, Twin Cities on North and around the Rochester area, too. So that's where it's the worst. So it evolves, and it's hard to predict where it'll be next.

CATHY WURZER: How much rain would need to fall to turn things around?

PETE BOULAY: Well, in the Twin Cities alone, we're-- just since May 1, we're seven and a half inches short of normal. And we wouldn't have to get all that rain to make it up, but definitely getting an inch a week from here on out would eventually improve the situation quite a bit. So we wouldn't have to make up all the deficit. We just would have to get something.

What we got last night is not going to cut it for most places, getting a little bit of rain from those storms that move through. There was a few lucky people in the North Metro got up to an inch of rain. But by and large, it just wouldn't even put a dent in it.

CATHY WURZER: Now, we're staring at the potential, according to the National Weather Service, of a significant heat wave next week. It could be a dangerous heat wave. That's not going to make things any better.

PETE BOULAY: Yeah, we've been lucky in July. So far, the entire state running about three degrees below normal for July. And while the drought was getting worse during this whole month for many people, it could have been a lot worse if we had a lot of 90s.

And now looks like that heat bubble is finally going to move into Minnesota next week and maybe for an extended period. So we'll have to keep an eye on it and see what happens there. But yeah, that probably would make things worse for sure, especially if we don't get the rain with it.

CATHY WURZER: So you mentioned that river levels are dropping. The Mississippi River levels are dropping here in the Twin Cities and all along the river. Other lakes and rivers, levels are dropping, too. I'm wondering, since the DNR has that mechanism, where is the level that-- where does it have to drop in order for the DNR to say, OK, look. We're in a serious situation here. We're going to start to rein in water usage.

PETE BOULAY: Well, they're looking at that now, especially where the rivers are the lowest. And they have to go by a case-by-case basis and kind of monitor that. And they have the matrix where they're taking a look at that. And then we'll contact people if it reaches a certain level of time where that particular area is seeing the lack of water.

So I know they're looking into it, and I don't know the latest on that. I do-- one thing that-- what they were looking at is up in Hennepin County, northern Hennepin County, where the creek was getting lower there. And luckily that it did rain in that particular area, so things improved a bit there in northern Hennepin County. So it's really hit or miss rain.

And that that's really been the story of this year so far. There's been places that have saw rain in June doing pretty good. I talked to a farmer in Stevens County, western Stevens County. He said his field corn and sweet corn look wonderful. But going across the county to the east of Morris, it's very variable, and some corn hasn't even tasseled. And that's just in one county.

CATHY WURZER: I'm glad you brought up farmers. I mean, the last time you and I talked, you said mid-July would be kind of crunch time, especially as the corn crop is developing. And here we are, mid-July. So as you say, some farmers are doing OK. Others probably are a little bit worried.

PETE BOULAY: Yeah, it all depends on, of course, soil texture, when did they get that crop in the ground, and plain old luck. Who got the rain? And it was very heartening to see that a lot of rain fell along I-90. The southern tier counties of the state last two weeks have received some rain. So that probably helped him out there, but it didn't rain everywhere.

Rochester, southeast Minnesota got missed. Central Minnesota's been getting missed, too. So what we need is-- the big thing that's been missing that I've been hoping for is one of those large thunderstorm complexes that come through in the middle of the night in the wee hours of the morning and give us a widespread one to two inches of rain.

Now, that could happen with this pattern we're in next week. On the edge of that ridge, we could get these big storm complexes develop and move. The question is where would it be-- up in northern Minnesota, staying up in Canada, or right over the Twin Cities? It's too early to tell, but my fingers are crossed we'll get at least one of those. So I'm hopeful.

CATHY WURZER: Are these flash droughts, Pete, a signature of climate change? Do we know that?

PETE BOULAY: Well, flash drought probably wouldn't be. What-- when you think of climate change, of course, a lot of us think of overnight temperatures, mainly in the winter. But overnight temperatures are also warming in the summer, too. If you look at July for the state, overnight temperatures have gone up over time.

Now, maximum temperatures, the high temperatures in July, haven't really budged a bit. So overall, we're warmer in July in Minnesota. So that-- climate change is probably a piece of the puzzle, but it's not the entire puzzle. So there's lots of other things going on, too. Climate change is just part of it.

CATHY WURZER: And after four years of drought, does the DNR know other-- your colleagues in the agency how is it affecting the forests and the wildlife and all of that?

PETE BOULAY: Sure. Well, it's a complicated story there, too. Let's take oaks, for instance, like burr oaks. That's one of my favorite trees. I try to grow them myself. So I'm very watching my burr oak, so to speak. If we have wet conditions, very wet-- and that's what we had in the 2010s. It was very wet, especially 2019-- burr oaks don't like wet feet.

So they can be stressed with that, and there's also is the soil compacted around the trees? Is there something stressing those trees, bugs or something else? If they're already in a weakened state here, comes a drought and then another drought after that. So that can really hurt the trees quite a bit.

So it's one thing that you always keep an eye on your trees and see how they're doing and if they need a drink. You're not getting an inch rain a week, give them a drip hose is the best. Try to get the half foot saturated around the tree if you can. Those are the ones I worry about the most. I can always replant my grass, but it's really harder to grow a tree back.

CATHY WURZER: All right, and as you say, fingers and toes crossed that we do see some significant rain even when it gets really hot next week.

PETE BOULAY: Yep. I miss it. I miss a good storm.

CATHY WURZER: Yeah, me, too. Me, too. Pete Boulay, thank you so much.

PETE BOULAY: All right, take care.

CATHY WURZER: Pete is the assistant climatologist with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.