Twins fan's video uses stats to bring hope to 0-18 postseason losing streak
A screenshot from the documentary "The Minnesota Twins and the Cruelest Streak in Sports."
Courtesy Chris Hanel
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Audio transcript
[MUSIC PLAYING] CATHY WURZER: The Twins begin their postseason journey this afternoon. It's game 1 against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. And if history repeats itself, eh, there's not a lot of hope. The Twins are 0 and 18 in the postseason, the worst record in MLB history-- actually, the longest postseason losing streak in North American professional sports history.
So will this year be different? One fan believes the Twins can defy the odds. And he made a nearly two-hour-long video to prove why you should hold out hope.
[MUSIC PLAYING]
CHRIS HANEL: I would argue that at this point, Twins fans are broken. This isn't a fan base anymore. It is a support group. When the Twins do win-- and they will eventually win, not just a single game, but another World Series-- the catharsis felt in Minnesota will forever alter the atmosphere.
CATHY WURZER: That is the voice of Chris Hanel in his video on YouTube, The Minnesota Twins and the Cruelest Streak in Sports. And Chris is on the line. Hey. Welcome. Thanks for taking time before the game starts.
CHRIS HANEL: Thanks very much for having me. I got a lot of nervous energy right now.
CATHY WURZER: [LAUGHS] It's OK. I bet you probably do. There are a lot of Twins fans like you out there. So how did you grow up a Twins fan if you did not live in Minnesota?
CHRIS HANEL: My dad's family is all from Prior Lake. And so I was exposed to the Twins from a very early age. My very first baseball memory is the '87 World Series. My grandfather and my dad's entire family is huge Twins fans. And I was hooked really early on and just never shook it off. No matter where I've gone through life, the Twins have always been with me.
CATHY WURZER: Oh. What was your first baseball memory of the Twins?
CHRIS HANEL: My parents gave me a storybook that was for kids about the '87 World Series. And seeing the photos of Gagne and Gaetti and Puckett and Gladden and Hrbek and seeing all of that was something that just immediately was an imprint. And then, of course, a few years later with the '91 World Series and being a 10-year-old, when everything just feels fantastic or fantastical, when everything just feels at that ultimate scale-- that was something that was just an amazing experience as a little kid and just always have felt that kind of kinship of like, OK, this is important to me.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, and it was a great time back then. And now we're looking at, yeah, some issues when it comes to the Twins and their playoff record. What pushed you to make this-- we're talking about a nearly two-hour-long video here. What was the inspiration?
CHRIS HANEL: It was conversations that I would have with other fans who aren't Twins fans who, when they talk about the losing streak, normally, when it's talked about in national media, it's usually during nationally broadcast baseball games, where they show this montage of the Twins losing and being disappointed. And what I was trying to do was trying to find a way to communicate from a fan perspective of what it really actually felt like to experience this losing streak because it wasn't just, oh, well, they got to the playoffs, and we're bad.
It was, they got to the playoffs and played pretty well. But then the most inexplicable things would happen or breakdowns or bad officiating calls. And in many of these cases, the Twins were massive favorites. In many of these games, they were 75%, 80%, 85%-- in one case, they were 97% favorites to win at one point in the game and then still would go on to lose. And so this documentary is basically breaking down how all of that happened and just really exploring how unlikely this losing streak has been.
CATHY WURZER: So bad luck really does play a lot into this equation.
CHRIS HANEL: A lot of bad luck and a lot of playing the New York Yankees, I am very sorry to say.
CATHY WURZER: I know it. I know it. There is one stat to focus on-- 69 billion to 1, 69 billion to 1. Break down that number for us.
CHRIS HANEL: Sure. So in baseball, there is a win expectancy stat, where a criteria has been made where you can look at a game and say, well, if you are up this many runs in this inning with this many outs and these are the base runners, then we can historically say that you are x percent favorites to win.
So what I did was I went through all 18 games. And I found the moment where the Twins accrued their maximum win expectancy, where it's like, OK, this is locked in. The Twins are ahead. They have their 80% or 85% or whatever percentage.
What if you were to take all 18 of those moments-- if you were to be able to place a bet on the Twins to win that game, what are the odds that they would lose all 18? And the number that it arrives at is 69,050,227,309 to 1 against.
CATHY WURZER: Wow. [LAUGHS]
CHRIS HANEL: It's a very big number.
CATHY WURZER: Oh my God. Yes, it is. All right. It's tough to be a-- let's face it. It's tough to be a Minnesota sports fan, but especially since we're dealing with the Twins here. It sounds like you still have some hope. And you want to infuse hope into the rest of the Twins fans, right? So give me your best argument.
CHRIS HANEL: My best argument that I can make, first of all, is that when you're looking at something this inexplicable-- and the Twins have been saying this themselves this week-- all things must end. This, too, shall pass.
And looking at the way that the team themselves have been talking about this losing streak has been really-- there's been a lot of momentum. The Twins are really excited to embrace this and say, we're going to take the fan base and put them on our back and run through this brick wall. And we're going to do it together.
If you compare it to the attitude of Twins teams in the past, where maybe sometimes they've been like, oh, well, none of the players, we weren't a part of that losing streak. That doesn't apply to us, which could come off as a little bit dismissive because the fans are like, well, we've been experiencing this. We're still in this funk.
This team, there's a lot of hometown guys. And even like someone like Pablo López, whose favorite player growing up was Johan Santana, he just showed up at the clubhouse today wearing a Johan Santana jersey, which was-- everyone is so excited about to see that they're embracing this.
They're saying, we know your pain. We know what you're feeling right now. We feel excitement. We're happy to be here. We are going to get you that win. And hearing that, hearing those emotions come out of the team, I'm so excited.
CATHY WURZER: Wow. Chris, I admire your optimism. I just, I don't know if I can see it right now. I just, I hope so. I hope that they can--
CHRIS HANEL: I have to.
CATHY WURZER: --finally break this. I know you do.
CHRIS HANEL: Yes.
CATHY WURZER: And I can see why. So you think they're going to win today.
CHRIS HANEL: I have said it the previous 18 times. So take that for what you will. But yes. I feel our pitching staff is one of the best postseason staffs the Twins have ever had. The lineup has been batting great. Over the second half of the season, they've been one of the best teams in the American League. If not now, when--
CATHY WURZER: A good point.
CHRIS HANEL: --is the argument that I would have.
CATHY WURZER: If not now, when? Yeah. If they win, I'm going to call you tomorrow and thank you because maybe you're the good luck charm. [LAUGHS] Chris--
CHRIS HANEL: Thanks very much.
CATHY WURZER: --thank you for your time. I appreciate it.
CHRIS HANEL: No problem. Thanks for having me.
CATHY WURZER: Chris Hanel's creator of the documentary The Minnesota Twins and the Cruelest Streak in Sports. You can watch the video on YouTube. We have a link on our website, by the way.
First pitch for the Twins at Target Field, 3:38 PM this afternoon. It's a beautiful day to watch baseball, by the way. Temperature right now in the Twin Cities, a warm 82 degrees, sunshine. Storms later on. We'll get to that forecast in a moment. Thanks for listening to Minnesota Now.
So will this year be different? One fan believes the Twins can defy the odds. And he made a nearly two-hour-long video to prove why you should hold out hope.
[MUSIC PLAYING]
CHRIS HANEL: I would argue that at this point, Twins fans are broken. This isn't a fan base anymore. It is a support group. When the Twins do win-- and they will eventually win, not just a single game, but another World Series-- the catharsis felt in Minnesota will forever alter the atmosphere.
CATHY WURZER: That is the voice of Chris Hanel in his video on YouTube, The Minnesota Twins and the Cruelest Streak in Sports. And Chris is on the line. Hey. Welcome. Thanks for taking time before the game starts.
CHRIS HANEL: Thanks very much for having me. I got a lot of nervous energy right now.
CATHY WURZER: [LAUGHS] It's OK. I bet you probably do. There are a lot of Twins fans like you out there. So how did you grow up a Twins fan if you did not live in Minnesota?
CHRIS HANEL: My dad's family is all from Prior Lake. And so I was exposed to the Twins from a very early age. My very first baseball memory is the '87 World Series. My grandfather and my dad's entire family is huge Twins fans. And I was hooked really early on and just never shook it off. No matter where I've gone through life, the Twins have always been with me.
CATHY WURZER: Oh. What was your first baseball memory of the Twins?
CHRIS HANEL: My parents gave me a storybook that was for kids about the '87 World Series. And seeing the photos of Gagne and Gaetti and Puckett and Gladden and Hrbek and seeing all of that was something that just immediately was an imprint. And then, of course, a few years later with the '91 World Series and being a 10-year-old, when everything just feels fantastic or fantastical, when everything just feels at that ultimate scale-- that was something that was just an amazing experience as a little kid and just always have felt that kind of kinship of like, OK, this is important to me.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, and it was a great time back then. And now we're looking at, yeah, some issues when it comes to the Twins and their playoff record. What pushed you to make this-- we're talking about a nearly two-hour-long video here. What was the inspiration?
CHRIS HANEL: It was conversations that I would have with other fans who aren't Twins fans who, when they talk about the losing streak, normally, when it's talked about in national media, it's usually during nationally broadcast baseball games, where they show this montage of the Twins losing and being disappointed. And what I was trying to do was trying to find a way to communicate from a fan perspective of what it really actually felt like to experience this losing streak because it wasn't just, oh, well, they got to the playoffs, and we're bad.
It was, they got to the playoffs and played pretty well. But then the most inexplicable things would happen or breakdowns or bad officiating calls. And in many of these cases, the Twins were massive favorites. In many of these games, they were 75%, 80%, 85%-- in one case, they were 97% favorites to win at one point in the game and then still would go on to lose. And so this documentary is basically breaking down how all of that happened and just really exploring how unlikely this losing streak has been.
CATHY WURZER: So bad luck really does play a lot into this equation.
CHRIS HANEL: A lot of bad luck and a lot of playing the New York Yankees, I am very sorry to say.
CATHY WURZER: I know it. I know it. There is one stat to focus on-- 69 billion to 1, 69 billion to 1. Break down that number for us.
CHRIS HANEL: Sure. So in baseball, there is a win expectancy stat, where a criteria has been made where you can look at a game and say, well, if you are up this many runs in this inning with this many outs and these are the base runners, then we can historically say that you are x percent favorites to win.
So what I did was I went through all 18 games. And I found the moment where the Twins accrued their maximum win expectancy, where it's like, OK, this is locked in. The Twins are ahead. They have their 80% or 85% or whatever percentage.
What if you were to take all 18 of those moments-- if you were to be able to place a bet on the Twins to win that game, what are the odds that they would lose all 18? And the number that it arrives at is 69,050,227,309 to 1 against.
CATHY WURZER: Wow. [LAUGHS]
CHRIS HANEL: It's a very big number.
CATHY WURZER: Oh my God. Yes, it is. All right. It's tough to be a-- let's face it. It's tough to be a Minnesota sports fan, but especially since we're dealing with the Twins here. It sounds like you still have some hope. And you want to infuse hope into the rest of the Twins fans, right? So give me your best argument.
CHRIS HANEL: My best argument that I can make, first of all, is that when you're looking at something this inexplicable-- and the Twins have been saying this themselves this week-- all things must end. This, too, shall pass.
And looking at the way that the team themselves have been talking about this losing streak has been really-- there's been a lot of momentum. The Twins are really excited to embrace this and say, we're going to take the fan base and put them on our back and run through this brick wall. And we're going to do it together.
If you compare it to the attitude of Twins teams in the past, where maybe sometimes they've been like, oh, well, none of the players, we weren't a part of that losing streak. That doesn't apply to us, which could come off as a little bit dismissive because the fans are like, well, we've been experiencing this. We're still in this funk.
This team, there's a lot of hometown guys. And even like someone like Pablo López, whose favorite player growing up was Johan Santana, he just showed up at the clubhouse today wearing a Johan Santana jersey, which was-- everyone is so excited about to see that they're embracing this.
They're saying, we know your pain. We know what you're feeling right now. We feel excitement. We're happy to be here. We are going to get you that win. And hearing that, hearing those emotions come out of the team, I'm so excited.
CATHY WURZER: Wow. Chris, I admire your optimism. I just, I don't know if I can see it right now. I just, I hope so. I hope that they can--
CHRIS HANEL: I have to.
CATHY WURZER: --finally break this. I know you do.
CHRIS HANEL: Yes.
CATHY WURZER: And I can see why. So you think they're going to win today.
CHRIS HANEL: I have said it the previous 18 times. So take that for what you will. But yes. I feel our pitching staff is one of the best postseason staffs the Twins have ever had. The lineup has been batting great. Over the second half of the season, they've been one of the best teams in the American League. If not now, when--
CATHY WURZER: A good point.
CHRIS HANEL: --is the argument that I would have.
CATHY WURZER: If not now, when? Yeah. If they win, I'm going to call you tomorrow and thank you because maybe you're the good luck charm. [LAUGHS] Chris--
CHRIS HANEL: Thanks very much.
CATHY WURZER: --thank you for your time. I appreciate it.
CHRIS HANEL: No problem. Thanks for having me.
CATHY WURZER: Chris Hanel's creator of the documentary The Minnesota Twins and the Cruelest Streak in Sports. You can watch the video on YouTube. We have a link on our website, by the way.
First pitch for the Twins at Target Field, 3:38 PM this afternoon. It's a beautiful day to watch baseball, by the way. Temperature right now in the Twin Cities, a warm 82 degrees, sunshine. Storms later on. We'll get to that forecast in a moment. Thanks for listening to Minnesota Now.
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