Former Minnesotan in Kyiv: ‘Very uncertain’ situation as war in Ukraine rages on

NINA MOINI: Now more than 1,000 days into the war in Ukraine, significant shifts in tactics are happening. The US and Europe both bolstered support to Ukraine's arsenal, and Russia made serious threats about nuclear attack. Plus, American made missiles struck Russian soil for the first time since the war began.

We want to get an update on these big changes from our friend Brian Bonner in Kyiv. Brian is a journalist formerly with the St. Paul Pioneer Press and the former editor of the Kyiv Post, Ukraine's Premier English-language newspaper. Thank you so much for joining us, Brian.

BRIAN BONNER: Nina, thanks for having me.

NINA MOINI: And this is, I think, our first time speaking, but we know you've been a great friend to the show throughout your journey there, and we really appreciate it. How are you doing right now?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, I'm always happy too. Minnesota is still a big part of my life. I live here. Well, if on cue, we're under another air raid alert, that's very common. Last night was very loud and noisy.

In the middle of the night I'm used to waking up because that's when the Russians usually attack. It was very loud. It was like machine gun fire trying to knock out Iranian Shahed drones. Before that happened, I was listening to a YouTube highlights of Minnesota, Chicago, that's how crazy I become. I was like annoyed and that I had to get out of bed and listen to this.

But we've all gone a little bit crazy. That's the personal view. The larger view is, it's a very difficult situation on the battlefront and it's a very uncertain situation that Ukraine is facing as Donald Trump takes over.

NINA MOINI: 1,000 days, I mean, it's really hard to imagine what you all have been through. We know that just last week, the Biden administration said that it would draw down more than $7 billion in military equipment and ammunition from stockpiles to send to Ukraine before President-elect Trump takes office. What do you make of that, trying to get what they can, the resources they can in before the unknown occurs?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, it's too late. The Biden administration had the chance to change the dynamics very early on. They knew the invasion was coming. And Bob Woodward's recent book, War, lays out what all Ukrainians know and all people live in Ukraine know. Well, deterrence failed and preparation failed.

I mean, the latest example, finally, two months before he leaves office, he's removed the restrictions on using long range weapons to strike Russian military targets deep inside Russia. It's just too late. The problem is that Biden administration allowed itself to be deterred by Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats, which I think are hollow and also told Putin what he was going to do and what he wasn't going to do.

And we have a long history, as you know of we're not going to approve this weapons system and then six months later, they approve it, and then it comes slowly. So this is why it might sound illogical because Trump has said, I want to get this war over with. A lot of people around him say I don't care what happens, including JD Vance to Ukraine.

The hope here is to try something new. The Biden administration's approach is just bleeding Ukraine out, that's the feeling. Now, we could get a lot worse under Trump.

But the hope is that Biden understands deterrence, understands that the only way for Putin to negotiate a reasonable deal is if he feels that he's going to lose, and right now Putin does not feel like he's losing. And that means opening up a lot more resources and a lot more weapons than Ukraine has available to it now.

NINA MOINI: It's hard to hear you there saying that it's too late, that must be pretty demoralizing. We know that President-elect Trump, has criticized the amount of aid that the US has sent to Ukraine even before they bolstered it just now and he wants to immediately end the war. He said he hasn't given details on how that would happen. What are you hearing in Kyiv in response to President-elect Trump's claim?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, if you look at I mean Trump's advisors, they are divided. There's a lot of people who want to just cut Ukraine loose. I don't think that's going to happen. I hope not. Here's why.

I mean, for Ukraine to lose it would mean a victory of the autocracies. We are really in World War III situation here without exaggeration. And many people are saying that who are close to the situation, why? Because Russia has the help of China, has the help of Iran, has the help of North Korea, has the help of Belarus.

Today in the news, they're recruiting Yemeni soldiers. It's not over territory of Ukraine. It's over what are the rules of the game. And if Ukraine loses, Ukraine had nuclear weapons, gave them up in exchange for security assurances, then bad consequences are going to happen to the Democratic world, the Western world, any rules based order. First of all, there's going to be more nations wanting nuclear weapons as deterrence.

There's going to be a lot of costs because the NATO allies who are close to Russia understand that they're next or fear that they're next. So when I say too little, too late, I mean, there was a time where the war could have been prevented. People believed the full scale invasion. And then after that, there was a time in 2022 when Ukraine was on the offensive, when it could have had it.

It's not too late for Ukraine to win, but three years into the war, they're outmanned and they need to fix that themselves. They are outgunned and the West needs to do its part. Ukraine also needs to do better on that area. And they're just outnumbered and Russia has vast resources. The good news is, with all Russia's resources, they still haven't managed to take much more of Ukraine than they had three years ago.

NINA MOINI: I'm curious, Brian, you're talking about more serious threats about nuclear warfare. And I'm curious, at this stage, 1,000 days into the war, can you tell us a little bit about what you see out your window, what you're moving through throughout the day, like the level of destruction and if you ever think about maybe leaving Ukraine?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, sadly, if he doesn't win militarily, Vladimir Putin is winning by one by one. Now 7 million people have left the country and almost every day I hear from a friend or a friend of a friend who has either left the country and decided not coming back or are here and going to come back.

I want you to know that, I mean, the heavy fighting and the heavy bombing is occurring in parts of the country that are not as well protected as the capital. So generally, we feel, OK. I mean, the risk is still low.

Yes, they keep trying to attack the capital, but they don't succeed very well. And part of that move is just intimidation. I think what Ukrainians are trying to do with Trump is to show them that Ukraine is not a victim, not a basket case, that there is resources that won't cost taxpayers a lot of money.

$330 billion in frozen Russian assets still are frozen, that could go to Ukraine. There are lend, lease programs and many people have advocated that $500 billion huge sum. Many people have advocated and in exchange, Ukraine, gives up mineral leases or makes economic concessions so that taxpayers aren't on the hook. Everybody understands that the world is tired of the war. Nobody is more tired of the war and nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians.

And that does need to happen next year or else. I'm really worried about the demographic situation. I mean, there's still a good scenario to make Putin understand militarily that he's not going to win, he's not going to outspend the West. But for that to happen, Ukraine is going to have to get a lot more troops to the front and they aren't doing that.

And they're going to have to have a lot more weapons and financial backing. And they don't have the weapons of war, the money right now to do that, but it's there.

NINA MOINI: Brian, I want to just leave on this note as someone who is living in Ukraine and I've talked to my Ukrainian friends here as well, and I can't imagine what it feels like over there. But do you feel like folks around the world or in the US are not paying as much attention anymore? And what would you tell people in terms of just how important it is for continued support, not just from the federal government, but from everyday people, Minnesotans?

BRIAN BONNER: Well, I think there's a moral clarity here right and wrong. Ukraine just wants to be left alone. It did want to join the European community, it wants to join the Democratic community, gave up its nuclear weapons to do that. They're not a perfect nation. There's still corruption, There's still a lot of problems in their military. They need to draft more soldiers.

But they're the victim here, I mean, they're in the right and they deserve that. The message is, listen, if you don't care about Ukraine, I mean, if Ukraine falls, I don't think it will. But if Ukraine falls, it's just going to cost a lot more. I mean, in defense, in the credibility of the West and in our ability to deter the axis of instability or whatever you want to call them.

China has designs on Taiwan, Iran's menacing behavior, and North Korea rocket man. I mean, because you're going to see South Korea saying it needs to get a weapon and/or Taiwan or other countries. And I think if we go down this road where we have to show that the West is strong enough to prevail and that means getting some guarantee.

Now, if you read the polls, Ukrainians are willing to negotiate some territory in exchange for strong security guarantees. The guarantees have to be strong. NATO, we're going to back you up and we're going to arm you for decades to come and help you ever be attacked again. Those guarantees have never been forthcoming.

So there are ways to end this. But I don't think Vladimir Putin wants to, basically, by design, he doesn't believe Ukraine is an independent nation. And until he changes his view on that, I doubt any negotiations are going to be successful under Trump or any administration.

NINA MOINI: Brian, thank you so much for your time. We're wishing you all the best and we hope you'll come back sometime soon.

BRIAN BONNER: Happy to be on the show. Thank you, Nina.

NINA MOINI: Thank you. That was Brian Bonner, a former journalist for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and the former editor of the Kyiv Post, Ukraine's Premier English-language newspaper.