Summer returns to Minnesota in time for (possibly) rainy Fourth of July

NINA MOINI: Can you believe it's already July? June really flew by, and July has already brought some seriously summery weather so far. So here to take a little look back at June and give us the forecast for the upcoming 4th of July weekend is MPR News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. Thanks for being with us today, Sven.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Absolutely, Nina. Happy July.

NINA MOINI: Happy July to you. June was a story.

[LAUGHTER]

It was a story of stats.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, it was.

NINA MOINI: What were you seeing? How warm was it?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah. It was a mixed bag on temperatures and precipitation, actually. Of course, we had a lot of severe weather. Temperature wise, most of central and southern Minnesota reported slightly above normal temperatures. But of course, we got to remember that normal is the modern average. So actually, we were quite a bit above the historic average of Junes of a century ago. But northern Minnesota was actually slightly cooler than normal. Places like Moorhead, International Falls, Duluth, were a few tenths of a degree below normal. But Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Rochester, we were about one to two degrees above normal.

And well, we saw, of course, more than our share of rain across central and southern Minnesota. That was not the case statewide. Northern Minnesota generally was fairly dry. Duluth was almost an inch and a half behind for June rainfall, which means they saw about a third less of a rain that they should see in the month. But of course, Twin Cities, we're more than an inch above normal. Rochester was above normal. But you get out around Kandiyohi County, Wilmer area, 8 inches above normal for June rainfall. That means they saw about triple normal rainfall.

And of course, we talked about this last week, but since then, we added to the tornado count. 48 tornado reports so far this year. Now, that's a preliminary number. That'll probably change as they survey everything. But either way you look at it, above normal. And 39 of those reports were just in the month of June. April and May were fairly quiet, but we really saw things ramp up in June.

NINA MOINI: Wow. So much going on there. Like I said, so these first two days of July have been pretty steamy. What's the outlook for the rest of the month? Can you tell much about it?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah. So the official forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center and most of our longer range models actually have a slight drying trend through the month. We'll see if that actually happens. Once we're past two weeks, it's hard to really pinpoint things. There isn't really an end in sight to the pattern we've been in. But there is a consensus in the models that we do eventually get to this drier point, and that would be pretty typical.

Typically, in July and August, the weather does settle down. June is our, on average, wettest month of the year. And most of the models and the official outlook is calling for better odds than not of warmer than normal temperatures for July. Doesn't mean it's going to be 90 degrees every day, but we just might average out those temperatures consistently above normal.

NINA MOINI: And can you tell anything rainfall wise about what might be ahead?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Well, so July rainfall looks to be pretty average. But again, most of the models in the official forecast are leaning towards potentially a drier than normal month, at least for the western half of the state. So we'll see what pans out there. But in the short term, we're still in this fairly active pattern that we left off with June. We had some showers in northern Minnesota this morning, southwestern Minnesota right now.

Lots of sunshine, but temperatures pretty warm in the 80s. We're going to see some isolated storms pop up today, because the dew points are going to start to increase again. And if we do see one or two storms pop up, they could be on the severe side, mainly a hail threat. We have a marginal risk, level one out of five, of some severe storms, but otherwise, well into the 80s. We're already at 86 right now.

NINA MOINI: Tell us a little bit about the weekend ahead, Sven. Break it to us. What's it going to be weather wise for folks?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, big holiday weekend. Lots of people have plans. Tomorrow, same thing. Kind of an isolated thunderstorm or two later in the day, but otherwise lots of sun and most of the day Friday. 4th of July should be sunny, hot, and humid. We're going to be near 90 degrees. Dew point's in the low 70s, but we have a front coming through. Very slow moving. We'll develop storms late in the afternoon in northwestern Minnesota and then track slowly south and east.

Looks like the best chance for most of us, except for that northwestern quadrant of the state, will come in the overnight hours Friday night, and it could even move in towards those fireworks times, so we're going to have to watch the timing. It's hard to pinpoint it to the exact hour right now, but Friday night looks wet. And then that front slowly moves through Saturday. So Saturday looking unsettled, too.

Won't be a washout any day, but there are going to be storms around Saturday. Sunday looking like the nicer day with a drop in humidity, back to sunshine, stable weather. And probably around 80 degrees Sunday, Monday, after near 90 degree temperatures Friday and Saturday.

NINA MOINI: All right. Lots of weather news. Thanks so much, Sven.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: You're welcome, Nina.

NINA MOINI: That was MPR News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.