How wildfires in Canada are affecting Minnesota air quality

[MUSIC PLAYING] NINA MOINI: Our top story this afternoon, this air quality. There's an air quality alert for Northern Minnesota until 6:00 this evening still, and the entire state of Minnesota is recovering from the poor air quality we had this weekend after smoke from Canadian wildfires blanketed the region. A meteorologist with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency is on the line with me now to explain what's happening. Ryan Lueck, thank you so much for joining us this afternoon.

RYAN LUECK: Hi. Thank you for having me.

NINA MOINI: You know, yuck, I thought this weekend, both days. And I hear it's still pretty smoky up to the northern part of the state. What are you seeing? What's the latest you're seeing on the map right now?

RYAN LUECK: So there are lots of-- there's lots of wildfire smoke still in place across Northern Minnesota. That's from a second push of wildfire smoke. Like you mentioned, we've been dealing with that all weekend. And while that batch is slowly exiting the state this morning, this second batch is moving into the northern part of the state, so still dealing with reduced air quality with that alert in place, with unhealthy for everybody air quality conditions.

NINA MOINI: Could you explain-- I'm sure it's a long process, Ryan, but it feels like there's always something burning somewhere. I wonder how you're able to track where's this next batch of smoke going to be coming from. Or is it something that you have to be more reactive to?

RYAN LUECK: So we look at satellites a lot to determine where the current wildfires are and also how active those wildfires are. And so we can tell pretty well how active, how much smoke they're going to be putting out, how much they are putting out, and then where that smoke is going. And so right now, we're seeing the most active areas across Southeastern Manitoba, Western Ontario, and then also parts of Central Saskatchewan and Central Manitoba.

And so there are a lot of wildfires out there. And it kind of depends on the fire weather conditions, which areas of fires are going to be more active than others. And so that can change from day to day. And it does. It makes for a complicated forecast and an ever-changing forecast.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, and not to mention the heat, the humidity that different areas have been experiencing and often do. Would you explain a little bit about how that contributes to the pollution level, if not the ability to fight the initial fires themselves?

RYAN LUECK: Exactly. So the weather is really important for a number of reasons. Right off the bat, it determines how active the wildfires are. And that determines how much they'll be able to spread and consume fuels such as trees. And so that determines how much smoke is going to be produced. After that, the weather determines where that smoke is going to be transported, whether it's sent off to the north, away from Minnesota, or down into Minnesota.

And it also determines where in the atmosphere that smoke will be. So will the smoke be aloft? And will it just produce those milky skies but no impacts to our air quality here at the surface? Or will the smoke be here at the ground and lead to these air quality issues that we've been experiencing recently. And there are several factors that are involved in determining that. And that's what we-- a big part of our job is to try to assess where that smoke will be.

NINA MOINI: And there are so many factors. There's probably a role that climate change plays. A group of Republican lawmakers from Minnesota and Wisconsin, I understand, actually wrote to the ambassador of Canada last week asking that country for more clear plans around how they will be able to tackle the issues that they're facing. How much control does, say, the Forest Service in Canada have over the fires and smoke, compared with something like climate change? What are the different-- the factors that you consider as you're looking at these trends over time?

RYAN LUECK: This is a complicated problem. And so there's a lot of factors that go into how active a wildfire season will be. Increased warm temperatures, dry conditions will lead to more wildfires. And if those wildfires are in remote areas, they're going to be hard to access by firefighters. And so you end up just getting a lot of smoke sometimes that will move into Minnesota. And there's not a whole lot that can be done.

NINA MOINI: What do you think, before I let you go, Ryan, about the rest of the summer here in Minnesota? Some summers are smokier than others. I remember one a few summers ago that really stands out. What are you forecasting, though, or thinking that this summer might be like in terms of wildfire smoke for Minnesotans?

RYAN LUECK: Well, that's a great question. And there is a bit of a difference this year compared to other years, in that we started out quite active. And so if you remember, there were quite a few air quality alerts earlier this year across Minnesota. That was due to widespread drought that had developed across Canada. And then a lot of wildfires developed and spread.

Well, then we had a break. So a lot of mid-June through early July, there was a lot of rain that was falling across Canada. And so that kind of subdued the wildfires. It didn't extinguish them, which is important. It just subdued them.

And now, as we're heading into the heart of the summer season, which brings the hottest temperatures, this is traditional wildfire season. And so we're kind of expecting now all of these wildfires that had been in place and had been kind of subdued by the rain. Now that that wet pattern isn't continuing, we're expecting a lot more wildfire spread and thus probably expecting more smoke intrusions through the rest of the summer into Minnesota.

NINA MOINI: Well, that's not great news, but it's good to be aware of. And we really appreciate you explaining kind of how things are the way they are, as we all look up at our skies. So thank you so much, Ryan.

RYAN LUECK: Yeah, no problem. Thank you.

NINA MOINI: Thank you. That was Ryan Lueck with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.