Welcome to meteorological fall: There's a chance of snow in northeast Minnesota

NINA MOINI: Wow. Well, this started this month, September, really has brought some significantly cooler temperatures. Maybe you're getting out your fall clothing. We're going to talk now to MPR News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard to see if that's the right move right now, Sven, really. What do we do? What do we pack up? It's been kind of crazy this temperature drop.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: I've seen people bundled up already today, even though it's still 62 degrees. But it's always a shock to the system. Our blood thins out after the summer, right?

NINA MOINI: Yeah. Well, after this past summer, because it kind of really was a hot one. It felt really humid. What stood out about this past summer to you?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah. It wasn't one of the hottest Summers of the last several years. We had some pretty hot Summers and drought years, but it was generally warmer and wetter than normal across most of the state and in the Twin Cities officially. We averaged about a degree above normal, which doesn't sound like a lot, but that's enough to put us in the top 30% of summers, believe it or not. Because remember that normal is a modern 30-year average, which is warmer than it was a century ago.

So 2021, we had our warmest summer ever, and that beat any summer that we had in the 1930s. We tend to think of those Dust Bowl years as being the top years. And there was some extreme heat, but you also had those normal ups and downs. The consistent warmth of the summer is what really put us above average. We didn't have a lot of extremes. We had the average number of 90-degree days, but it was wet, certainly across much of the state.

Officially at MSP, it averaged about normal. But there were many suburbs that were way above, and especially West Central Minnesota. Out around Morris, nearly double the normal rainfall. About 2 feet of rain fell when you should get about 12 or 13 inches.

NINA MOINI: Wow. Yeah, it's good to reflect back. And now that it's already meteorological fall, it feels like it. But sometimes I feel like September can be one of the best weather months and pretty warm. So what are you forecasting?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Yeah, it sure can. And we know it's a roller coaster every year. We're starting to see that tug of war between summer, fall, and eventually winter, too. And we see an average temperature decrease of about 11 degrees in the month of September, from the average high in the Twin Cities of 78 on the first to 67 by the end of the month. And we're losing three minutes per day of daylight right now. Of course, that's consistent no matter what.

But yeah, the outlook calls for slightly better odds than not of warmer than normal conditions for fall and for September. And probably equal chances of us having above or below normal precipitation. So I would bet on a warm September. September is one of our fastest warming months actually when we look at recent decades. Winter months are warming the fastest, but fall is a close second behind it, and especially May and September.

Our summers are getting hotter, but we're seeing summer last longer. It's starting earlier and ending later, and we've certainly seen that in some recent Septembers where that summer warmth really persists.

NINA MOINI: OK. So what are you seeing then just for today?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: Cool windy. What you see is what you get, except we are going to see a few more clouds fill in. Look for some spotty showers to develop here over the next few hours, especially Central and Northern Minnesota. Only 43 right now in Grand Marais with a 15-mile an hour wind that means-- I know people don't want to hear this-- but a wind chill of 36 degrees in Grand Marais right now.

Yeah. So windy today. Highs mid 60s for Southern Minnesota. I think we'll hit about 65 in the Twin Cities, but only low 50s in the far Northern part of the state.

NINA MOINI: And the chances for flakes, did that already come and go?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: I know it's still possible. I think up on the Gunflint Trail, inland from Lake Superior, deep into the Arrowhead, there could be a few flakes tonight from any leftover sprinkles. And also tomorrow night with the next round of rain, there could be some flakes up there. We're not expecting accumulations, but even to see some flakes up there might freak some people out.

And temperatures are going to be cool tonight, Nina. We're talking about our first night in the 40s for the Twin Cities. Probably 46 in the Twin Cities, 30s across Northern Minnesota. I think widespread frost up there.

NINA MOINI: So what about just the rest of this week?

SVEN SUNDGAARD: More cool weather. This next system tomorrow, we've got a Clipper system coming in that'll bring some more rain late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. We'll probably start tomorrow sunny and chilly, but clouds will increase. So count on some late afternoon, evening rain tomorrow. And behind that it's going to reinforce this cool air. So highs tomorrow 60s again Southern Minnesota. But Friday, we may struggle to reach 60 even in the Twin Cities, with 50 across most of Central and Northern Minnesota and still some lingering clouds.

But as we head into the weekend, it's going to be cool, but nice. We should see sunshine. The winds should calm down. But highs just mid to upper 60s here across Southern Minnesota, and probably upper 50s in the Northern part of the state. So that is below normal here for that first full weekend of September.

NINA MOINI: All right. Well, I'm just going to keep everything where it is in my house. That's my takeaway. I'm not going to make any moves yet.

SVEN SUNDGAARD: No. Don't yet.

NINA MOINI: All right. Thanks, Sven. That was MPR News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.