Last official week of summer brings the heat, with rain on the way
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Audio transcript
NINA MOINI: All right, let's turn to some weather. I hope last week's cool temperatures didn't lead you to turn off the AC or turn on the heat, because this week we're zigzagging back to some seriously summery heat. Here to tell us more is MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner. Paul, it's been a weird week, huh?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it sure has. Kind of a summer in September. It's like a makeup summer, Nina, because we lost all those smoke days earlier. It didn't really feel like summer out there. And, boy, the last week, we've sure had it back in spades and with no smoke. So it's been nice if you like the warm stuff.
NINA MOINI: It is a little bit of a bonus. And I know that sometimes happens in September or mid-September, even October, I feel like. What do you make of that?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we had mid-80s into late October last year. And this last week is interesting. And in fact, September has been interesting so far because it started cold. We were 15 degrees, colder than normal the first week. And now we've been 15 degrees, warmer than normal the second week. We hit 92 in the Twin Cities yesterday.
NINA MOINI: Oh, wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. In the afternoon, it popped up there. That is the 12th day of 90 degree heat this year. And the average is 11, so we're pretty close to that. But it was our fifth day of 82 or warmer, so it was really a sustained stretch of very warm summer-like weather that we've had over the last week or so.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, what are you forecasting for the weekend? Because sometimes this summer, too, I felt like all of the difficult weather or the smoke would land on our weekends. So I'm curious to know about this weekend.
PAUL HUTTNER: It's going to change a little bit here. We're still going to be lukewarm as we head through the weekend but gradually cooling from the 80s. We just hit 80 in the Twin Cities in the last hour.
We're going to be mostly in the 70s, it looks like, through the weekend. And it's going to get a little more rainy. Now, it's not going to rain all the time. But there will be occasional showers and thunderstorms. There's a weak low-pressure system that's slowly spinning from South Dakota into Minnesota the next few days. So occasional showers and storms. And they're happening now south of Albert Lea on I-35, moving up into Austin, eventually Rochester, west of the Twin Cities.
Now, Wilmer, are you hearing thunder? Because there is thunder and lightning strikes on the Doppler right now, going on Highway 12 around Wilmer, and then west of that, Madison, Appleton, Benson in Western Minnesota.
Nina, that area is going to expand a little as we head through the afternoon. So I think Twin Cities, we're going to have a pretty good chance of some scattered, garden-variety showers and thundershowers after about 4, 5, 6 o'clock into this evening. Doesn't look severe. There's no risk areas out for Minnesota. But this is going to be the trend here as we head through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Occasional showers and thundershowers, many, many dry hours in between, but maybe a couple hours of rain each day or each night. And it could add up. Some of the forecast models saying we could get an inch or 2 of rain across much of Central and Southern Minnesota by the time we get into Sunday and Monday.
NINA MOINI: And I don't know if it's looking warmer even still next week. But I'm hearing about this heat wave that you were telling us about in the North Pacific Ocean that impacts us here in Minnesota as well.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, this is fascinating to me, I mean, us weather geeks that watch this stuff. Because the ocean actually drives jet stream patterns that affect our weather. So people have been watching this. It is record warm in the North Pacific. 68 degrees doesn't sound like much, but that's the highest average temperature on record for that ocean basin.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: It's also the fourth largest marine heat wave. It goes from Alaska to Hawaii, all the way from Japan to California. All that area in the North Pacific is much warmer than normal. And it affects the jet stream. Now, the last time that happened to this magnitude was the winter of 2013 and '14. And I don't know if people remember, but that was a brutal winter.
NINA MOINI: Polar vortex.
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, multiple polar vortex outbreaks. Coldest winter in 35 years at that point. We had 53 subzero nights in the Twin Cities. International Falls had 92. And we had 70 of snow in the Twin Cities that winter, with more than 100 inches in northern Minnesota.
So will that happen again? Absolutely no guarantees. But that pattern is what people are watching, what I'm watching to see if it mimics what we call a La Nnia winter, where it takes that jet stream down into the central us and brings us lots of cold and snow. So stay tuned. We'll be watching that one over the next few months.
NINA MOINI: We'll see. Thanks so much, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: That was MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, it sure has. Kind of a summer in September. It's like a makeup summer, Nina, because we lost all those smoke days earlier. It didn't really feel like summer out there. And, boy, the last week, we've sure had it back in spades and with no smoke. So it's been nice if you like the warm stuff.
NINA MOINI: It is a little bit of a bonus. And I know that sometimes happens in September or mid-September, even October, I feel like. What do you make of that?
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, we had mid-80s into late October last year. And this last week is interesting. And in fact, September has been interesting so far because it started cold. We were 15 degrees, colder than normal the first week. And now we've been 15 degrees, warmer than normal the second week. We hit 92 in the Twin Cities yesterday.
NINA MOINI: Oh, wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. In the afternoon, it popped up there. That is the 12th day of 90 degree heat this year. And the average is 11, so we're pretty close to that. But it was our fifth day of 82 or warmer, so it was really a sustained stretch of very warm summer-like weather that we've had over the last week or so.
NINA MOINI: Yeah, what are you forecasting for the weekend? Because sometimes this summer, too, I felt like all of the difficult weather or the smoke would land on our weekends. So I'm curious to know about this weekend.
PAUL HUTTNER: It's going to change a little bit here. We're still going to be lukewarm as we head through the weekend but gradually cooling from the 80s. We just hit 80 in the Twin Cities in the last hour.
We're going to be mostly in the 70s, it looks like, through the weekend. And it's going to get a little more rainy. Now, it's not going to rain all the time. But there will be occasional showers and thunderstorms. There's a weak low-pressure system that's slowly spinning from South Dakota into Minnesota the next few days. So occasional showers and storms. And they're happening now south of Albert Lea on I-35, moving up into Austin, eventually Rochester, west of the Twin Cities.
Now, Wilmer, are you hearing thunder? Because there is thunder and lightning strikes on the Doppler right now, going on Highway 12 around Wilmer, and then west of that, Madison, Appleton, Benson in Western Minnesota.
Nina, that area is going to expand a little as we head through the afternoon. So I think Twin Cities, we're going to have a pretty good chance of some scattered, garden-variety showers and thundershowers after about 4, 5, 6 o'clock into this evening. Doesn't look severe. There's no risk areas out for Minnesota. But this is going to be the trend here as we head through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Occasional showers and thundershowers, many, many dry hours in between, but maybe a couple hours of rain each day or each night. And it could add up. Some of the forecast models saying we could get an inch or 2 of rain across much of Central and Southern Minnesota by the time we get into Sunday and Monday.
NINA MOINI: And I don't know if it's looking warmer even still next week. But I'm hearing about this heat wave that you were telling us about in the North Pacific Ocean that impacts us here in Minnesota as well.
PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, this is fascinating to me, I mean, us weather geeks that watch this stuff. Because the ocean actually drives jet stream patterns that affect our weather. So people have been watching this. It is record warm in the North Pacific. 68 degrees doesn't sound like much, but that's the highest average temperature on record for that ocean basin.
NINA MOINI: Wow.
PAUL HUTTNER: It's also the fourth largest marine heat wave. It goes from Alaska to Hawaii, all the way from Japan to California. All that area in the North Pacific is much warmer than normal. And it affects the jet stream. Now, the last time that happened to this magnitude was the winter of 2013 and '14. And I don't know if people remember, but that was a brutal winter.
NINA MOINI: Polar vortex.
PAUL HUTTNER: Oh, multiple polar vortex outbreaks. Coldest winter in 35 years at that point. We had 53 subzero nights in the Twin Cities. International Falls had 92. And we had 70 of snow in the Twin Cities that winter, with more than 100 inches in northern Minnesota.
So will that happen again? Absolutely no guarantees. But that pattern is what people are watching, what I'm watching to see if it mimics what we call a La Nnia winter, where it takes that jet stream down into the central us and brings us lots of cold and snow. So stay tuned. We'll be watching that one over the next few months.
NINA MOINI: We'll see. Thanks so much, Paul.
PAUL HUTTNER: Thanks, Nina.
NINA MOINI: That was MPR News chief meteorologist Paul Huttner.
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