Why are so many Minnesotan politicians running for a third term in office?

NINA MOINI: With a week to go before Minnesota's municipal elections, some voters are going to see some familiar faces on their ballots. Minneapolis and St. Paul mayors Jacob Frey and Melvin Carter are both vying for a third term. And next year, Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison are hoping to be elected to their positions for a third term, too.

Here to explain why we're seeing politicians running for third terms in office is Professor Larry Jacobs. He's the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. Thanks, as always, for sharing your time with us today, Larry.

LARRY JACOBS: Good to be with you.

NINA MOINI: So this has really been standing out to our team this election cycle. But I'm wondering if from your perspective, if it is feeling like more than maybe a usual batch of candidates wanting to run for a third term. Are you noticing that?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, I think it stands out in Minnesota, partly because we haven't had a modern governor who's gone for a third term. Usually, they leave the stage before that happens. So I think it's getting a lot of attention. But look, there's a lot of advantage to running again and again. That's why we see so many incumbents staying in office.

You've got name recognition. You've got an established fundraising base. You've been winning, so you know exactly which voters to go to. And so that tends to keep people around when they see something that's going well, and they're staying in office.

NINA MOINI: Do you think that the tense political climate has anything to do with it?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, I think for certainly Governor Walz, I think it does. We are seeing, over the last decade or so, a nationalization of our elections, meaning that the party that does not control the White House, in this case would be the Democrats, they tend to do better in these midterm elections. There tends to be a referendum on whoever is president.

And so I think Tim Walz is looking at a quite unpopular Donald Trump, particularly in the most salient issues of inflation and the economy. And he's thinking, OK, maybe I can shift this election from a referendum on me and some of the challenges he's got and instead make it a referendum on the unpopular Donald Trump.

NINA MOINI: What do you think are some of the pros and cons say of being in office for 12 years or longer? At the rate that things move sometimes, it's hard to what you could even get done over the course of one term of four years.

LARRY JACOBS: Yeah, I think that's part of it. It allows politicians to pursue their agenda. And certainly that's part of the argument that Tim Walz is making that he wants to continue to develop the country and the state. The downside is you get locking. And so there are complaints about the same ideas, the same people, the lack of new blood.

This has been a long standing debate, and it's one of the reasons that we've seen laws passed to try to limit the number of terms that members of Congress and other officials can run.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, and remind us, if you would, of some of the term limit situations in the state. I understand Minnesota is one of 13 states with no term limit for governor.

LARRY JACOBS: Right. Minnesota stands out for that. And part of the thinking in the past has been, well, we haven't had too many governors running for more than two terms. But also when you have someone in office, particularly an executive like the governor, they begin to develop skills. They know how government works. They understand the state better than someone who would be just elected.

So I think this has been a debate back and forth that's gone on for some time. And it's one of the reasons that Minnesota is among only a dozen or so states that do not have term limits for governors.

NINA MOINI: And I know you're not a sociologist, but I do wonder if the last five years and the pandemic and some of the uneasiness, is that beneficial to incumbents and just some of the-- to be able to say I wasn't able to get what I wanted done because there was a global pandemic?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, certainly Governor Walz is going to say, look, I've brought us through the storm. Let's not shift mid-course. I'm the one who you can count. On the other hand, I think there are some voters who are just fatigued and feel that the governor has not done a good enough job. For instance, Republicans have been complaining about the budget situation.

In 2023, the governor had a large surplus of over $17 billion. And now there's a projected deficit a few years out. So they see that as an example of the governor being in too long and taking the state in the wrong direction.

NINA MOINI: What do you think is the public perception of a politician who served multiple terms? Maybe it's different at different levels because I know at the city council level, it's not uncommon. Mayors, it's not as uncommon for people to serve for years and years. Less common in other roles. Do you think it serves people well or does it matter which role we're talking about?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, I think obviously for governor, they get so much public attention. And in the state of Minnesota, there has been this tradition of governors moving on after two terms. I don't think it's really been an issue. I think this election is going to set a precedent. If Tim Walz is re-elected, I don't think we're going to be talking about third terms.

We may see an effort to try to create term limits that may get more momentum. But again, I think there are different ways to look at it. The governor has got a lot of experience. He knows the state well. He's been through the storms of pandemics and economic downturns. And the state has survived. He's been through the uprising in Minneapolis.

And people have complaints about it. But he brought the state through that. On the other hand, there are some real concerns about the direction the state is going in. And there's resentment, even in his own party, that it's time for new blood, that the governor is kind of in the way of a new generation that would be coming up.

NINA MOINI: It's hard to obviously, Larry, but I wonder from your perspective, if you had to predict or try to imagine the future, do you think the US is headed toward more or less term limits in general? Because there's been a lot talk about perhaps President Donald Trump would be in a third term or members of Congress.

A lot of people think that they should have term limits, and that would help things move along. And with some of that perception that people are kind of out for themselves. What do you thinks going to happen with term limits?

LARRY JACOBS: I don't think term limits are going to go very far, partly because the incumbents don't like it, and they find a way to undermine it. It's not to say that they won't continue to exist in the country. And we see in some states-- or many states for the governor, but fewer states when it comes to members of Congress. And think about the members of Congress from Minnesota.

We have members who have been in office for some time. They build up a seniority, they build up leadership talents, and that can really help the state. Tom Emmer is number four in the House of Representatives. Does that help the state of Minnesota when it comes time to doling out budgets and making decisions about regulations?

Yeah, I think you'd probably find a lot of businesses and organizations liking the ability to go to Tom Emmer's office and ask for help.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, it just sounds like it depends on the role, but how often would you say that this is a winning strategy, that candidates win a third term?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, usually, Congress is about over 90% of the time. When they run for office again, they win. And I think the reason there is name recognition, it's money going to them. It's the habit of voters. They see a name and they feel like, OK, I haven't seen enough to support the other candidate. That would be a risk to support a candidate I don't know much about.

So generally, the incumbents win again and again, which is why we have these term limits.

NINA MOINI: And just lastly, Larry, obviously, there have been a lot of just scary events with public officials and elected officials attempts on their lives. Obviously, former Leader Hortman and her husband were killed this summer. I just wonder if you think that there are less people interested in running. Is the field smaller?

LARRY JACOBS: There is no doubt that what happened to Leader Hortman has had a tremendous chilling effect. And I've spoken to many legislators here in Minnesota who are afraid. And they're afraid for themselves and their family. Now, many of them are still serving. I think many will. But it takes courage.

And I think everyone needs to appreciate the risk that our leaders are taking by stepping forward, particularly in an environment where there is such animosity and even hatred.

NINA MOINI: All right, Larry. Thank you so much for coming by Minnesota Now and breaking that down for us. I learned a lot. Thanks.

LARRY JACOBS: Good to be with you.

ANGELA DAVIS: That was Professor Larry Jacobs. He's the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota.