Criticism grows from both Democrats and Republicans over ICE in Minnesota. Why now?

NINA MOINI: I'm Nina Moini. You're listening to Minnesota Now. Thank you for joining us. We're seeing a growing number of Republicans pressing for a deeper investigation into tactics of federal immigration agents in Minnesota after the most recent killing of Alex Pretti over the weekend.

Top leaders from DHS, ICE, and Customs and Border Protection patrol will testify before Congress in two weeks after a hearing was called by several congressional Republicans here in Minnesota. Republican state Representative Nolan West told me on the show earlier this week that the surge must end. And Democrats are becoming louder and using different language in their opposition to ICE. Here with some analysis on this political moment is Larry Jacobs, Founder and Director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. Thanks for your time, as always, Professor Jacobs.

LARRY JACOBS: Good to be with you.

NINA MOINI: I mean, I listed off some of what we're hearing there in my introduction. What is your take on Republican leadership, both nationally and here at the state level and some of the shifting language as this long month in Minnesota has gone on?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, I think that's the right way to put it, shifting language. I'm not sure there's that much of a shift in the policy. And there are clearly divisions among Republicans. Republicans who are not speaking, I think, the silence is a way cover for them.

But there are clearly a large number of Republicans who believe that the tactics of ICE are necessary for enforcement of policy, and they remain that way. They're very much opposed to the discussion in Congress about possibly holding up funding to the Department of Homeland Security. So big division among Republicans. Some are speaking out, many are silent. And then I think there's significant majority who want to keep moving ahead as ICE has been.

NINA MOINI: Yeah. Mentioned the possibility of a partial government shutdown at the end of this week if Congress can't come to a decision on that funding for the Department of Homeland Security. But we've also seen some stronger language about if ICE can even be reformed. I don't want to put words in anyone's mouth, but these are their words Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, who's also running for US Senate, recently wrote that ICE is, quote, "beyond fixing."

And that type of language seems stronger. And it's coming from some Democrats at this point in time. Do you find that the language on ICE amongst leaders in the Democratic Party is shifting?

LARRY JACOBS: Absolutely. I think Peggy Flanagan reflects the base of the Democratic Party among progressives, who believe that ICE, as an agency, needs to be terminated. There should be no detention, no prisons, no enforcement infrastructure at all.

The concern among other Democrats is that this is opening, the Democrats open them up to charges that they're weak on enforcing the border. They favor open borders. And when you actually look at public opinion, the very word "abolish," there's a lot of confusion about that. And again, leading some Democrats to worry that the talk about ending ICE can be used by Republicans to turn against Democrats.

NINA MOINI: And to your point, Minneapolis Police have been really going strong, saying trying to make a difference, that they make the point that they're different than the way that federal agents are behaving. And some of the conversation around trust that has been rebuilt or attempts to rebuild trust in the last five years since the murder of George Floyd when, of course, many Minnesotans will remember there was talk about abolishing local police departments and Minneapolis Police. And that seemed to really backfire on a lot of Democrats. Do you think that's part of the reason that this word "abolish" or "abolishing ICE" may be trickier?

LARRY JACOBS: Absolutely. I think in the back of some Democratic minds, they're very much thinking about the defund the police rhetoric and worries that was easily manipulated. Again, when you look at how Americans are hearing and understanding abolish, it is not clear. And even when you ask the country, do you favor abolishing ICE? There's a plurality in favor of it, but it's not very strong.

So I think there's caution here. And I think the defund police experience is leading a number of Democrats to be looking for alternatives, like the debate over funding. And I think we may well see a partial government shutdown, precisely because Democrats are looking for a way to signal accountability. They want to make sure that there is going to be more investigations. It's not going to be these invasions by ICE with masks on and other kinds of steps.

NINA MOINI: Would you give us a peek kind of behind the curtain if you know or have a sense for what it takes for politicians, really on either side of the aisle to start to shift this language or messaging? It doesn't seem like they randomly do. They might maybe talk amongst themselves or amongst their party. But what does it take? Is it watching polling on different issues, or what do you think?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, a lot of people who are elected to Congress, they have experience. So I think part of it is they'll talk about their gut. This is how I'm feeling about it. And then it goes back to basic beliefs. A number of Republicans just believe that it's time for very strict enforcement and deportation, and they don't want to see protesters undermining what they see as the authority of the government to carry out that policy.

I know lots of people disagree with that, but that is a foundational belief among many Republicans. And so they see what's going on, and they're not moving because that's a belief. There are other Republicans, particularly those who are in districts that are not safe, where they're going to have a tough race come November, they're looking for ways to soften their position, and they're talking about let's do enforcement, but let's do it competently. Let's try to get out of the kind of news story in which there's no oversight. And ICE is acting in a way that appears to be illegal and unconstitutional.

NINA MOINI: In an NPR interview earlier this week, Governor Walz seemed optimistic after a conversation with the president, that ICE activity would cool down. We know, again, Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino was asked to leave, and then border czar Tom Homan is now here. What would you think would be the strategy from President Trump behind this?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, this is a horrible news cycle for the Republicans. And many Republican leaders are focused again on the midterm elections. I know that seems crass to some people, but that's the reality here. And every day that we're seeing stories coming out of Minnesota, which is dominated in national news about ICE and its tactics, is another day in which Republicans cannot move the country off of the deep economic pessimism that is probably going to send a lot of Republicans to defeat come November.

So I think the president is looking for a way to move the story along, get Minnesota off the front pages. Whether that can happen, we'll see. Because I think what we're seeing in Minnesota is that a number of the ICE agents are not trained in the way that you would expect. And I think the Minneapolis Chief of Police was very clear about this, that the training of the Minneapolis Police is much more sophisticated than what we're seeing among ICE. And the general conduct is raising all sorts of problems.

So it may not just be take out one or two leaders of ICE, but really a very fundamental questions about who is in ICE, and what is the level of training, and what is the mission?

NINA MOINI: Before we have to go. I do also want to ask you about the statement that came out from a bunch of, I think, it was like 60 Minnesota CEOs that put out a statement. A lot of folks and listeners that we've interacted with wondered why it took so long for a statement like that to come out from all of these business leaders. Then there was feedback and pushback that the statement really wasn't strong enough, that it was sort of like a nothing burger. How much impact do you think business leaders have on politics? And do you think that their role is shifting or they're looking at it differently?

LARRY JACOBS: Well, I think the business leaders are in business. They want to sell their products. They are responsible to their shareholders. And the one thing they don't want to do is get in the middle of a big political fight. On the issue of ICE and its conduct in Minnesota, the country is generally against it, but it's not by a lot. This is a close split. And so for business leaders to take one side or the other threatens their main operation.

So I think they were looking for a way to signal that they would like to see the controversy and the violence end. Because it's not good for business. But in terms of being kind of a moral leader, you got the wrong set of people.

NINA MOINI: What do you think-- or just based on your experience, I know there's no way to know, but what would you expect next from the Trump administration in terms of immigration enforcement? It does seem like there are long-term plans to build more detention centers and round up more people, but what would you suppose that they would do in this Immediate future?

LARRY JACOBS: I think what we're seeing now is public relations. I think the basic policy won't change. Donald Trump remains, at a fundamental level, committed to large numbers of deportations. So I'm not expecting a huge change. I think it's going to cool off, but we are going to see probably ice moving into Maine and maybe other states.

I don't think ICE is going to fully move out of Minnesota. I think it's going to be here. And I think we're looking at a very long-term debate and probably controversy all over the country.

NINA MOINI: All right. Larry Jacobs, thank you so much, as always, for sharing your insights with us. And we hope you'll come back soon.

LARRY JACOBS: Of course.

NINA MOINI: Thank you. That was Larry Jacobs, Founder and Director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota.