Survey of Twin Cities businesses shows scale of economic impacts from ICE surge

NINA MOINI: A new survey is providing a clearer picture of the challenges businesses across the Twin Cities are facing due to the two-month-long surge of federal agents. Neighborhood Development Center, or NDC, heard from more than 130 businesses. Almost 2/3 say the impact has been high or critical. And nearly 80% saw emergency financial assistance as the top priority. Here to talk more about this and how businesses are doing is Natalia Mercado, a director of business services with NDC. Thanks very much for your time, Natalia.

NATALIA MERCADO: Hi, Nina. Thank you so much for having me.

NINA MOINI: This is a really big deal. A lot of people are struggling. And they're really wondering when they will get that money, when any type of assistance will hit so that they'll be able to use it, hoping not months or weeks and weeks down the line. But we're hearing reports here that the economic impacts of the surge, they're varied, but the city of Minneapolis estimating there was a $200 million impact. Can you talk about just the need for this survey that you all did?

NATALIA MERCADO: Yes, absolutely. So Nina, we work with underrepresented, marginalized communities and small business owners, so including immigrant, the immigrant community. And we were already seeing them struggle over the last few months. And January and February, we saw the need was bigger than what we could provide. And so we really wanted to figure out, how can we give them what they need and not what we think they needed? And that's where the survey came into play.

NINA MOINI: Yeah, tell me more about that and why it's critical to engage with people that way, to see how the funding could help them. Because a lot of times when relief or assistance comes in or grants, it's very particular as to how people can spend it. So tell me a little bit about what you were hoping for to dive a little deeper with people.

NATALIA MERCADO: Yes, yes, you make a good point. So what we were hoping to find out is what exactly are the pain points you are experiencing so that we could meet them where they were. Again, we didn't just want to come up with a solution that wasn't going to meet the needs of where they were. We were also seeing staff shortages and things like that, which also impacted them negatively, people not feeling safe to come to work. And so that also made a major impact in them needing funding as well.

NINA MOINI: And we've talked a lot on the show here about just rent relief for people. And there have been calls for an eviction moratorium, which would encompass the whole state. I understand that NDC has launched an emergency relief fund that also includes commercial rental assistance because individuals, workers have to pay their rent. But a lot of businesses who don't own the building in which their business is located, they have to pay rent, too. So can you talk a little bit about what they've been dealing with?

NATALIA MERCADO: Absolutely So we found that they are-- some businesses are maybe one or two months away from having to close because they're behind on rent. They've either not been paying themselves. Or they're just a two-man show when it used to be like a 5 to 10-person staff, staffage. And so, like I said, we're looking at-- people are losing $2,000 to $15,000 a month right now. And that includes restaurants and event centers and service-based businesses as well.

NINA MOINI: Were those mostly, the people who responded, were people in the service industry? What was the breadth of the types of businesses you interacted with for this?

NATALIA MERCADO: Yeah, so we had-- the majority was food and restaurant sector. They lost, right now-- at the time of the survey, it was about $420,000 a month collectively that they were losing. And they expressed a need of about $330,000.

We also saw a need in the retail sector. And they expressed a loss of about $113 a month that they were all collectively losing. And they shared an emergency need of about $215,000 as well. Some other industries were like care-based services where they had a high medium loss as well, again, experiencing staff shortages and safety fears that affected them.

NINA MOINI: It seems like the need really exceeds what has been raised by private funds. But a lot of people have been relying on really grassroots organizations, neighbors, different nonprofits. We know at the state level, Governor Tim Walz has proposed a $10 million relief package, but we haven't seen movement on that yet. Do you think that would be enough to address the scale of the problem here?

NATALIA MERCADO: So the data, as you mentioned, it was about 154 people that we were able to connect with, but we tried to reach over 500. And again, that was just who we were able to connect with and who felt safe sharing information. And so when you think about the numbers that I'm sharing with you, just based on that short medium that we were able to connect with, it's bigger. The need is way bigger.

NINA MOINI: Where do you want this survey to be used? Or what are you going to do with your findings? How are you going to use them?

NATALIA MERCADO: So we've been already using it to connect with funders, philanthropists, to just share this-- to share what's going on. We wanted to be transparent. And we wanted to be able to show that this is coming directly from the entrepreneurs. This is not NDC's thought, or we're throwing something at the wall and hoping that it will stick.

We wanted to make sure we had data, like what was really going on in the community. And so we're hoping to use that not only for funding, but to also-- we're in the woods. But these businesses need so much support right now. And so the data also helps guide us into how we can best support them.

NINA MOINI: How long of a recovery do you think that this will be for people? I'm just wondering what you think the long-term impacts would be of the surge if businesses don't get the support they need, and soon?

NATALIA MERCADO: Yeah, that's a great question. We were comparing this to COVID. But the difference is, the resources are not available like it was in COVID. And so, unfortunately, we could be looking at the remainder of the year, if not early next year, of trying to turn this around, and help as many people as we can help.

Some people were already struggling and are ready to close, unfortunately. And so we're just trying to help support as many people as we can. These businesses are-- they're community anchors and pillars. And just losing them, it would really change the neighborhoods that we all love here.

NINA MOINI: Do you have a sense, Natalia, for how soon these business owners need the relief, how close they are to being out of their space?

NATALIA MERCADO: Yeah, Nina, a lot of them are already behind, and they're already receiving notices. And we're talking about people who've been in business for 30 years. They have been committed to the community and the work that they're providing. And just to see it leave and to lose it just that fast is so heartbreaking. So people need it. Like, in January, they were already in need. That was already a need. So we're behind.

NINA MOINI: And just lastly, Natalia, I think a lot of people that I've communicated with feel that with the drawdown of agents occurring and then perhaps less national attention or headlines, that some people will be left behind, a lot of these business owners. What can everyday Minnesotans and people do or continue to do to lend their support right now?

NATALIA MERCADO: Yes, if people can, to your point, continue to share that this is still-- that this isn't over and that it is going to take some time to help rebuild the businesses and the communities that were affected. They can also patronize these businesses, go show up. And if they can't be there in person, they can buy gift cards, share gift cards, place large orders. We've seen some people place orders for service members, for other people, even if they can't be there. We've seen large teams and companies show up.

Another way is with sharing social media posts. We've seen an increase, that when a business was highlighted on social media, that droves of people will come, and so just really keeping them in their mind and just knowing that this isn't over. And even if the federal immigration enforcement, if they left 100% tomorrow, that there is still so much work to be done.

NINA MOINI: Natalia, thanks so much for your time. I appreciate it.

NATALIA MERCADO: Thank you so much for having me.

NINA MOINI: Natalia Mercado is director of business services with Neighborhood Development Center.