Start your engines
For the fifteen years I worked at Indianapolis, the Thursday before Memorial weekend presented the most important opportunity of the year to establish credibility with the weather forecast.
As Paul Huttner noted earlier, not only is it about the chances of showers and thunderstorms, but it is about the timing. Back in the Circle city Office we focused on the weather window; the six hours of dry weather required for the pre-race ceremonies and the greatest spectacle in racing, the Indianapolis 500. If it rained prior to 7 am and after 3 pm, dampness was not an issue. However the hundreds of thousands of spectators favored dry weather all day.
I remember numerous times providing a detailed forecast by phone to the media, friends and neighbors on the morning of the race when rain was either already falling or in the forecast. Anxiety mounted if multiple yellow flags slowed the race, favoring a better chance of afternoon thunderstorms when precious minutes added to the checkered flag.
Looks like no problem for the Indy 500 this year. Forecast for Indianapolis
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It really is about the timing. If we predict showers and thunderstorms for your Saturday night and Sunday and the rain falls from midnight to 6am on Sunday, it has a much lower impact on your holiday festivities.
Remember, we are just the messengers. For this holiday weekend, let's try to emphasis the positive. It still looks like a run at 80 degrees is possible on Sunday.
Play it safe with the chilly lake temperatures; not nearly warm enough for taking a plunge.
CE