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Tom Scheck

Races to watch in the Legislature

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We did a story today that took a look at whether the DFL can get to veto-proof majority in the Minnesota House. Don't think it can happen? Have a listen to Gov. Pawlenty at a recent campaign stop in Bemidji. He was there to promote Doug Lindgren (2A) and John Carlson (4A).

Over the past few months, I've talked with folks who are deeply involved with the races (in other words DFLers and Republicans). I compiled a list to watch after taking a look at the notes from those interviews, reading reports on the races (from the handy dandy Daily Digest and PIM's newsletter) and looking at Campaign Finance reports.

The Bellwethers (These races could determine if it's 90 for DFL)

House District 4A - Open seat in Bemidji. Gov. Pawlenty campaigned up there with the hopes of picking up Frank Moe's old seat. DFLer John Persell v. Republican John Carlson

House District 28A - DFL Rep. Sandy Wollschlager represents the seat. Republicans have been active here and think Tim Kelly can win it.

House District 37A - DFL Rep. Shelley Madore v. Republican Tara Mack. Madore won the seat in 2006. It was controlled by Republicans for twenty years before that. The candidates have different views on taxes. The Biz partnership and others have gotten into the race to help Mack.

House District 49B - GOP Rep. Kathy Tingelstad's old seat. DFLers think it will switch. Democrat Jerry Newton v. Republican Jake Cimenski.

The toss-ups

House District 31B - No one can say how this race will turn out. It's a rematch from 2006. DFL Rep. Ken Tschumper faces former GOP Rep. Gregg Davids. Some folks don't like how Davids represented the district. Others think Tschumper is too liberal. The DFLer did deliver on flood relief though.

House District 37B - GOP Rep. Dennis Ozment's old seat. DFLers are optimistic that Phil Sterner can pick up this seat especially since they argue GOP candidate Judy Lindsay doesn't fit the district. It didn't help that Ozment, a Republican, called Lindsay an "extremist."

House District 41A - GOP Rep. Ron Erhardt's seat. Triple play time. Erhardt lost the GOP endorsement to Republican Keith Downey. DFLer Kevin Staunton is hoping the two split the GOP vote total and he sneaks in.

House District 51A - GOP say Tm Sanders will pick up the seat since DFLer Shawn Hamilton has had his share of problems. I-P candidate Daniel William Sanders is also in the race.

House District 56B - DFLer Marsha Swails holds the seat. GOP can't understand how Woodbury went blue in 2006 and think Lee Bohlson will win. Swails is popular in the District, however and DFLers are promoting video of a debate that features a few Bohlson botches.

The Leaners

House District 2B - DFLer Brita Sailer took the seat from Republican Doug Lindgren. Lindgren wants it back.

House District 52B - GOP Rep. Matt Dean v. DFLer Kate Christoper. This district is always close (Dean and now State Auditor Rebecca Otto slugged it out a couple of times).

House District 17B - GOP is hopeful that Don Taylor can unseat first term DFLer Jeremy Kalin. DFLers, however, say Kalin is working hard to hold the seat.

House District 41B - GOP Rep. Neil Peterson's old seat. Jan Schneider snatched the GOP endorsement from Peterson after he backed the gas tax increase. They slugged it out in a primary with Schneider winning it. Democrats are trying to portray Schneider as a far right candidate and hope DFLer Paul Rosenthal can pull it off.

House District 50B - DFLer Kate Knuth holds the seat but it's gone back and forth over the last few election cycles. Republicans hope Lori Grivna will get it to swing back.

House District 20B - DFLer Lyle Koenen and Don Swoboda fight for the western MN seat.

One term wonders? (AKA -The GOP thinks these folks rode a DFL wave in 2006)

House District 40A - Democrat Will Morgan holds the seat. Used to be solid GOP turf but is now purple. GOP hopes Todd Johnson will make it red.

House District 43B - Democrat John Benson represents the Western suburban seat. GOP thinks they can win it back (like every other western suburb seat). Brian Grogan is the Republican candidate.

House District 56A - DFLer Julie Bunn represents the seat. House GOP Minority Leader Mary Seifert thinks she's ripe for an upset and hopes Kathy Lohmer will do it. Business groups, including the Minnesota Business Partnership, consider Bunn a friend, however.

House District 53A - DFL Rep. Paul Gardner beat Phil Krinkie in this seat in 2006. Seifert argued that Krinkie wasn't active enough. They hope John Kappler can deliver.

House District 57A - DFLer Karla Bigham holds the seat. Politics in Minnesota says it's solid DFL. GOP has dropped lit in the district to help Kurt Perkins.

House District 38A - DFLer Sandra Masin holds the seat. Diane Anderson is the GOP candidate. This seat used to be held by GOP Rep. Tim Wilkin.

Sleeper races to watch

House District 32B - Kurt Zellers won the seat by 356 votes last time. Major upset if DFLer Lee Carlson can pull it off.

House District 38B - GOP Rep. Lynn Wardlow represents the district. Democrats always say he's going down but it may be a reach since a certain son of a South St. Paul truck driver held the seat before he was elected Governor. DFLers say Wardlow ain't Pawlenty and DFLer Mike Obermueller will win.

House District 43A - GOP Rep. Sarah Anderson holds it. Business groups are spending money in the solid Red district. If she loses, the Dem wave is cresting really really high. Clint Faust is the Democrat.

House District 54A - DFL Rep. Mindy Greiling holds it. GOP says it's his sleeper race because Greiling is spending more time handling education forums outside the district. Major upset if true. Mark Liliberte is the GOP candidate.

House District 57B - GOP Rep. Denny McNamara holds the seat. DFLers say he could go down. Rod Van Vleet is the DFL candidate.

Open Seat to keep an eye on

House District 13A - It's an open seat since GOP Rep. Bud Heidgerken is retiring. Solid red district but watch it anyway. GOP Paul Anderson is running against DFLer Bruce Shuck.

Also

Watch the seats in Rochester. It's a swing area and always ripe for upsets.

Question(s) of the Day: What do you think? Did I miss any?

UPDATE:

A knowledgeable GOP insider sends along these races to watch (check out the candidate info here) :

1A -- Lillestol will likely beat first-termer Olin

8B -- Soderstrom may beat Faust in this rematch

11B -- Kircher is a very strong candidate and may upset Otremba

25B -- not that likely but Tim Rud has a shot against Bly

27A -- not likely but Erik Larsen has a shot against Brown

30B -- not likely but Kuisle has a shot against Welti

47B -- longshot but Reinhardt has a chance against Hortman

16A -- Erickson won by less than 500 votes in 2006

35A -- Beard is not a strong campaigner and saw a huge drop in his margin of victory in 2006