Where’s the rain? Challenging forecast gets tougher

Since Monday, I've been tracking the rain chances for southeast Minnesota.  I thought it was easy on Monday to predict rain for Rochester.  The difficult part has been getting a handle on the rain chances for the Twin Cities.

I'm still challenged this morning as I awake to mostly clear skies in Eden Prairie.

Forecasters at the National Weather Service Twin Cities office have posted rain chances of 80 percent for Minneapolis-St. Paul this afternoon and tonight:

Today Rain and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 73. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight Rain and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am.

Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 65. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

The graphical forecast from the La Crosse, Wisconsin, National Weather Service office shows the rainfall potential through Friday night.



The infrared satellite images depicts clouds encroaching on southern Minnesota at daybreak.

Image:NOAA/College of Dupage

The regional radar shows that the heaviest rain was falling in Iowa this morning.

640 a.m. radar screen capture. Image:Wunderground.com

A look at the simulated radar forecast by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model for 11 a.m. today shows the rain extending into southern Minnesota.

HRRR model data. Image:NOAA

If you have activities planned up north, here's your Northland weather from the National Weather Service in Duluth for today.


When I sort this all out this morning, after tracking the movement of precipitation on the radar I'll give you an update at noon.  Is it possible the rain could slip south of the Twin Cities?

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Friday with temperatures near seasonal.


Currently, Saturday looks to be mostly dry with comfortable temperatures.  Warmer and more humid air is likely to trigger afternoon Thunderstorms on Sunday that could linger into Monday.

Perhaps I will attempt to make an outlook for the upcoming winter.  The forecast for the next two days is tough enough.

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