The manager of Republican Mike McFadden’s U.S. Senate campaign is disputing a poll that shows DFL Sen. Al Franken with an 18 point lead over McFadden.
The poll conducted by Survey USA for KSTP TV shows Franken with 55 percent support and McFadden with 37 percent.. The survey of 577 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 30 though Oct. 4.
In a press release, McFadden campaign manager Carl Kuhl acknowledges that McFadden is trailing Franken but said it’s not as bad as the Survey USA results indicate.
“First of all, this memo will not argue that Mike McFadden is tied or within the margins of Senator Franken,” Kuhl wrote. “We know we are trailing, but with the exception of SurveyUSA, polls show that McFadden is gaining on Senator Franken.
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Kuhl cited polls by Rasmussen Reports and CBS News/New York Times/YouGov that show Franken’s lead in single digits. Kuhl said those two polls show the race tightening.
Kuhl also said that special interest groups backing Franken are spending heavily in the race, something he suggested would not be happening if Franken had a wide lead.
“With control of the Senate on the line, it strains credulity to believe that liberal causes would throw money at a race in which they lead by 18-points,” Kuhl wrote. “Given the stakes on November 4th, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to spend precious funds on a race they believe is over.”
A poll showing Franken with a wide lead could have ramifications for the entire ticket especially if DFL Gov. Mark Dayton is also polling well ahead of Republican Jeff Johnson. If Republicans voters believe that they can’t win either statewide race, competitive U.S. House races and legislative contests could also suffer.
Meanwhile, Democrats are also expressing some concern about the poll. DFL Party Chair Ken Martin and others have repeatedly said that polls showing their candidates with wide leads could lead DFL voters to be complacent.
Here’s Kuhl’s full memo:
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Carl Kuhl, Tom Erickson - McFadden for Senate
RE: One Of These Things Is Not Like The Other – Recent MN Senate Polling
DATE: October 7, 2014
Last night’s KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on the Minnesota Senate race will undoubtedly be the talk of the state’s political scene over the next few days, and for good reason – it conflicts with the other polls conducted over the same time period.
First of all, this memo will not argue that Mike McFadden is tied or within the margins of Senator Franken. We know we are trailing, but with the exception of SurveyUSA, polls show that McFadden is gaining on Senator Franken.
As the polls below show, Senator Franken does have a lead in this race that is outside the margin of error. But two of the three surveys conducted in late September and early October show Franken under 50% and McFadden trailing by single digits.
Figure 1.1 – Recent MN-Sen Polling
|
Rasmussen Reports
Dates: 9/29-9/30
Franken – 49%
McFadden – 41% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov
Dates: 9/20-10/1
Franken – 49%
McFadden – 42% |
KSTP/SurveyUSA
Dates: 9/30-10/2
Franken – 55%
McFadden – 37% |
Here, SurveyUSA stands alone – and Minnesota isn’t the only state where this is the case.
As the National Review wrote this morning, Democrats consistently do better in SurveyUSA polls than those from just about every other polling outfit. By their count, SurveyUSA polls for the Kentucky Senate race, Florida Governor’s race, and the Georgia Senate and Governors races all show Democrats running stronger than other recent public polls. From the National Review (emphasis added):
Monday Survey USA released a poll of Kentucky voters showing Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes up by 2 in the Senate race. Not only is that the first poll to show Grimes ahead since June, every other poll since July had Mitch McConnell ahead by at least 4. The previous most recent poll, by the CBS News/New York Times, had McConnell up by 6.
Wednesday SurveyUSA had Charlie Crist up by 6; two weeks earlier, they had Rick Scott ahead by 1, and two weeks before that they had Scott ahead by 5. Other pollsters have not seen the same dramatic shift in Crist’s favor. ***
Wednesday, Sept 26, SurveyUSA released a poll that had Republican David Purdue up 1 in Georgia’s Senate race; that’s the smallest lead any pollster has found in the past six polls.
They found Jason Carter, the Democrat, up 1 in the governor’s race. That was the only poll in the last five to have Carter ahead.
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July-To-October
The tracking survey from CBS News/NYT/YouGov show a race that is tightening, with Franken’s 14-point lead from July now cut in half to just seven points.
Figure 1.2 CBS News/NYT/YouGov Poll Results
| DATE |
FRANKEN |
McFADDEN |
DIFFERENTIAL |
| 7/5-7/24 |
55% |
41% |
+14% Franken |
| 8/18-9/2 |
49% |
41% |
+8% Franken |
| 9/20-10/1 |
49% |
42% |
+7% Franken |
(Source: Real Clear Politics, accessed October 7, 2014)
But CBS News/NYT/YouGov didn’t just poll Minnesota – they polled every U.S. Senate race in the country. What these surveys concluded is that the Minnesota Senate race is now a much tighter race than those in Virginia and Oregon, with Sen. Franken and McFadden locked in a race as tight as the nationally watched New Hampshire race. According to the CBS News/NYT/YouGov poll, Minnesota’s Senate race is now the eighth most competitive Democrat-held Senate seat.
Figure 1.3 – CBS News/NYT/YouGov Poll Results, released Oct. 5, 2014
| STATE |
GOP |
DEMOCRAT |
DIFFERENTIAL |
| Kansas |
40% |
40%* |
+0 |
| Iowa |
43% |
44% |
+%1 D |
| North Carolina |
45% |
46% |
+1% D |
| Colorado |
45% |
48% |
+3% D |
| Arkansas |
45% |
41% |
+4% R |
| Georgia |
47% |
43% |
+4% R |
| Louisiana** |
32% |
36% |
+4% D |
| Michigan |
41% |
46% |
+5% D |
| Alaska |
48% |
42% |
+6% R |
| Kentucky |
47% |
41% |
+6% R |
| Minnesota |
42% |
49% |
+7% D |
| New Hampshire |
41% |
48% |
+7% D |
| Mississippi |
46% |
35% |
+11% R |
| Illinois |
39% |
51% |
+12% D |
| Virginia |
39% |
51% |
+12% D |
| Oregon |
39% |
52% |
+13% D |
| South Dakota |
42% |
27% |
+15% R |
* - As no Democrat is on the ballot in the Kansas Senate race, these numbers reflect the support of independent candidate Greg Orman.
** - Poll results listed for the November 4th election. If no candidate attains 50%, a runoff will be held on December 6, 2014. A separate poll was conducted for the runoff election.
As Figure 1.3 shows, the Minnesota Senate race presents a much more favorable pickup opportunity than either Oregon or Virginia. McFadden trails Franken by seven percentage points while holding Franken to under 50%. In Virginia, Democrat Senator Mark Warner is over 50% leads Republican challenger Ed Gillespie by 12 percentage points. The race in Oregon paints a similar picture to the Old Dominion, with Democrat Senator Jeff Merkley over 50% with Republican Monica Wehby trailing by 13% percentage points – $1.7 million in spending in Wehby’s favor notwithstanding.
Despite being outspent nearly four-to-one by Senator Franken and receiving no support on the airwaves from independent groups, the McFadden campaign has been able to close the gap to just seven percentage points – the same differential found in New Hampshire’s Senate race. While the polls in these states are nearly identical, they are different in one regard: outside spending. Whereas Minnesota has been devoid of any outside spending, residents of New Hampshire have seen over $13 million in outside spending.
Speaking of outside spending, Everytown For Gun Safety began airing TV spots in the Twin Cities market today in support of Senator Franken’s campaign. Meanwhile, mailboxes in the Twin Cities region have been flooded with anti-McFadden mailers from Americans for Responsible Solutions PAC. With control of the Senate on the line, it strains credulity to believe that liberal causes would throw money at a race in which they lead by 18-points. Given the stakes on November 4th, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to spend precious funds on a race they believe is over.
With political reporters like Chris Cillizza beginning to compare the 2014-midterm elections to the wave year of 2006, don’t be surprised to see races like McFadden v. Franken continue to tighten as voters turn away from an unpopular president and the politicians who support him 97% of the time.
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