Dry winter could mean spring wildfires

Parts of northern Minnesota may be getting a few inches of snow, but it's not doing much to relieve the worries of state wildfire fighters.

Much of the northern half of the state is still 20 to 25 inches behind average winter snowfall totals. One of the driest winters in 50 years could lead to a damaging wildfire season.

Most years, according to Ron Stoffel, DNR wildfire suppression supervisor, DNR fire crews respond to 1,400 wildfires, which burn about 40,000 acres. Those average fire seasons follow winters with average snowfalls.

After dry winters like this one, there are many more fires.

The winter of 1987 looked much like this year, Stoffel said, and that year was one of the busiest fire seasons of his career. DNR crews saw more than 88,000 acres burn.

With little snow to saturate the landscape come spring, Stoffel said, Minnesota could be looking at another bad fire year.

"It all depends on the weather we have between now and then," he said, "but the way it looks right now, there's a good chance we're going to be busy."

With some fresh snow, it might seem that winter is rebounding.

Leon Osborne, director of the Regional Weather Information Center at the University of North Dakota, said the winter could turn around and blanket the Midwest with snow, but that's not what he predicts. Osborne's long-term weather models predict a return to cold, dry weather.

"We're in a drought pattern," he said.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only two areas of Minnesota are technically in moderate drought: an area around Hubbard County, and the Red River valley along the North Dakota border.

For Osborne in Grand Forks, that means the Red River's flood season will likely be tame. For firefighters like Stoffel, though, it means a busy summer.

It's not just the lack of snow, Stoffel said, but the amount of water in it. Usually, heavy wet snow mats down dead grass, making it harder to ignite. This year, those grasses are standing upright and dry. Should a fire start, it will move fast.

Stoffel is also concerned about timing. Most years, wildfire season starts in southwestern Minnesota in early March and migrates to the northeast slowly, over about six weeks. This year, he expects the whole state to enter fire season within a single week.

If things do get bad, Stoffel said, the DNR can call in fire crews from the Great Lakes area, and then turn to national resources. He said there is a "pretty good possibility" that the DNR will have to seek help from outside the state this year.