70s and some 80s this weekend, Monday rain
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My wife Deb and I enjoyed dinner out on the front porch Friday evening. The weather was great, and Deb mentioned that she really likes outdoor dining this time of year because there are no mosquitoes!
I would bet that the frosty temps of last Saturday and the dry weather of the past few days will delay our mosquito season a bit more. I don't think anyone will complain about that!
Shooting for 80
A high pressure system will remain to our southeast through most of the weekend:
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The result will be southerly breezes and warm temperatures. Western Minnesota could see scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night.
Highs will be mostly in the 70s today. A few spots, including the Twin Cities, could touch 80:
Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday, maybe a couple of degrees warmer in spots:
With stronger southerly winds, Sunday temps in areas close to Lake Superior will be a few degrees cooler than Saturday.
Rain on Monday
Forecast models show a low pressure system spreading showers and thunderstorms over Minnesota on Monday:
A strong or severe thunderstorm will be possible Monday afternoon and Monday night.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather for Minnesota and western Wisconsin Monday and Monday night:
Foss Lake Wildfire
Firefighting efforts will continue today on the wildfire near Foss Lake in the Superior National Forest. The fire originated on Thursday about 10 miles west of Ely, Minnesota:
The wildfire is burning in part of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW), and the Crab Lake entry point to the BWCAW has been closed.
The U.S. Forest Service posted this wildfire update Friday evening:
Incident Overview
Foss Lake Update
Date Issued: May 20, 2016 at 8:00 p.m. Incident Commander Type III: Timo Rova
Fire Information:
- Phone: 218-208-4544
- Web address: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4740/#
- Email: FossLakeFireInfo@gmail.com
Fire Start Date: May 19, 2016 Size: Approximately 440 acres Containment: 10 percent
Location: This fire is located 10 miles west of Ely, MN, in St. Louis County, one mile west of the southwestern edge of Burntside Lake, north of Foss Lake, and south of Crab Lake. The fire is burning north within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW).
Description: Crews made good progress today, directly attacking the fire on its north, east, and west sides. Aircraft dropped fire retardant along the east side of the fire and water on the west side.
Background: The Foss Lake Fire began on May 19 as a prescribed fire to reduce surface and ladder fuels, to enhance wildlife habitat, and to encourage jack pine regeneration. Shortly after ignition, an unpredicted change in weather conditions brought higher winds, warmer temperatures, and lower relative humidity. A spot fire north of the control line escaped containment and the wind-driven fire spread to the north. Aircraft that were on standby responded quickly and, with the work of ground crews, were able to slow the fire’s eastward spread with water and retardant drops, protecting the west and north sides of Burntside Lake. The fire spread north to Crab Lake in the BWCAW. There was no fire growth to the south.
Message: There is no threat to the towns of Ely, Winton, Tower, or Soudan. No structures are threatened. Good fuel-reduction work completed over the last two years on Burntside Lake increases firefighters’ ability to manage the eastern edge.
Resources: 80 personnel and 8 aircraft. MNICS Type II Team under Incident Commander Brian Pisarek arrived today and will take command of the fire Saturday morning. The Lake Vermilion Fire Brigade and the Morse/Fall Lake Fire Department both have fire boats on Burntside Lake are conducting structure-protection assessments.
Weather: Saturday’s weather will be very similar to Friday’s. The temperature will be around 75 degrees. Relative humidity will be 20–27 percent. South winds will be variable up to 7 mph. The earliest chance of rain over the fire area is Monday.
Closures: Currently, just one BWCAW entry point is closed: entry point #4 Crab Lake. All other entry points remain open. The closure area includes the following BWCAW portages and lakes, including campsites:
- Crab Lake BWCAW entry point and portage from Burntside Lake to Crab Lake
- Crab, Boulder, Phantom, Battle, Sprite, Meat, Clark, Glimmer, Hassle, Saca, Little Crab, Korb, Maxine, Barefoot, Little Jig, Silaca, Coxey Pond, Lunetta, Schlamn, Soroll, Glenmore, Western, Blick, Chad, Dugout, and Pine Lakes and associated portage trails
- Cummings Lake portage from Cummings Lake to Korb Lake and Cummings Lake to Korb River
- Pine Creek East of Trout Lake
- Pine Lake portage from Trout Lake to Pine Lake
Closure signs will be used at normal points of access to delineate the closure area. The closure area map is located at http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4740/#
Basic Information
Current as of 5/20/2016 10:22:10 PM Incident Type Wildfire Current Situation
Size |
440 Acres |
|---|---|
Percent of Perimeter Contained |
10% |
Updates on the wildfire can be found here.
Foss Lake Wildfire update
The U.S. Forest Service posted this wildfire update today:
Foss Lake AM Update
Saturday, May 21, 2016, 11:00 a.m.
MNICS Team C, Brian Pisarek, Incident Commander
Foss Lake Fire Information
Web address: http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4740/#
Email: FossLakeFireInfo@gmail.com
Phone: 218-208-4544 Location: US Forest Service office, 1393 Hwy 169, Ely, open 8 a.m.–8 p.m.
Fire Start Date: May 19, 2016 Size: approximately 440 acres Containment: 10 percent
Current Situation: A Minnesota type 2 incident management team took command of the fire this morning. Today they will work closely with the firefighters and managers who have been fighting the fire the past two days. Yesterday crews constructed fireline and installed hoselays along the east and west sides of the fire’s south end. A hotshot crew camped on Crab Lake last night and today will work on the north end of the fire. Eventually they will meet up with crews working from the south. Aircraft assisted ground crews by dropping water and retardant on the fire, particularly on the east side. Retardant has been dropped along the entire length of the east edge to limit fire growth toward Burntside Lake. Local firefighters from the Lake Vermilion Fire Brigade and Morse/Fall Lake Fire Department, using their two fire boats, have been conducting structure-protection assessments of residences on the west end of Burntside Lake and will continue that work today. There are 80 personnel and 5 aircraft on the fire.
RED FLAG WARNING
The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for dry conditions for St. Louis County that is effect until 8 p.m. Saturday, May 21.
Weather and Fire Behavior: Today will be warm and dry again with the temperature reaching the high 70s and the relative humidity dropping as low as 16 percent. Light afternoon winds will be from the southwest with gusts not expected to top 10 mph. Fire-behavior analysts expect fire activity to be light today. However, strong winds are predicted for tomorrow, which could potentially increase fire behavior. With the weather change in mind, crews will prioritize the east side of the fire for their fire-suppression efforts today. The earliest chance of rain over the fire area is Monday.
Safety Message: The towns of Ely, Winton, Tower, or Soudan are not threatened, nor are any structures. Fire managers are planning for Sunday’s strong winds and red-flag-warning conditions. Residents on the west side of Burntside Lake should be aware of changing weather conditions.
Location: The fire is located 10 miles west of Ely, MN, in St. Louis County, one mile west of the southwestern edge of Burntside Lake, north of Foss Lake, and south of Crab Lake. The fire is burning north within the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (BWCAW).
Closures: Currently, just one BWCAW entry point is closed: entry point #4 Crab Lake. All other entry points remain open. The following BWCAW portages and lakes, including campsites, are closed:
- Crab Lake BWCAW entry point and portage from Burntside Lake to Crab Lake
- Crab, Boulder, Phantom, Battle, Sprite, Meat, Clark, Glimmer, Hassle, Saca, Little Crab, Korb, Maxine, Barefoot, Little Jig, Silaca, Coxey Pond, Lunetta, Schlamn, Soroll, Glenmore, Western, Blick, Chad, Dugout, and Pine Lakes and associated portage trails
- Cummings Lake portage from Cummings Lake to Korb Lake and Cummings Lake to Korb River
- Pine Creek East of Trout Lake
- Pine Lake portage from Trout Lake to Pine Lake
Closure signs will be posted at normal points of access to delineate the closure area. The closure order and map are located at http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/4740/#.
Basic Information
Current as of 5/21/2016 11:01:22 AM Incident Type Wildfire Cause Human Date of Origin Thursday May 19th, 2016 approx. 11:00 PM Location Near Foss Lake; ~10 miles SW Ely, MN Incident Description Escaped Prescribed Burn Current Situation
Size 440 Acres Percent of Perimeter Contained 10% Estimated Containment Date Wednesday June 01st, 2016 approx. 12:00 AM Fuels Involved Timber (Grass and Understory) Outlook
Planned Actions Secure, anchor, and continue to secure flanks, using aircraft to cool ahead of crews. Current Weather
Weather Concerns |
When rH and wind activity increases, fire activity will increase in Wilderness |
|---|
Updates on the wildfire can be found here.
Update for Red Flag Warning
The Duluth office of the National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for much of north-central and northeastern Minnesota, valid until 8pm Saturday:
Here are some details of the red flag warning:
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1016 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016
..ANOTHER VERY DRY AND WARM DAY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
.THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WHICH HAS BEEN ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER THROUGH
SUNDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE SUPERIOR NATIONAL
FOREST...THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA...VOYAGEURS
NATIONAL PARK...LAKE WINNIBIGOSHISH AREA...AND THE POKEGAMA LAKE
AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
SHOWER...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF A SEA
GULL LAKE TO LUTSEN LINE AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SAME DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TO OCCUR SUNDAY.
MNZ010>012-018-019-026-035-037-220100-
/O.NEW.KDLH.FW.W.0006.160521T1516Z-160522T0100Z/
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTH ITASCA-NORTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
1016 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERY
DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
SUPERIOR NATIONAL FOREST...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR VERY DRY CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
CDT THIS EVENING.
* AFFECTED AREA...IN MINNESOTA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 010...011...
012...018...019...026...035 AND 037.
* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 16 PERCENT.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 70S.
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW....OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates weekend mornings at 7:35 a.m. on Minnesota Public Radio.
