Thunderstorms possible overnight and Wednesday
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We enjoyed some of the best weather in the country today!
There was plenty of sunshine and very low humidity. Many spots in Minnesota saw highs in the lower 80s. Sounds like the kind of weather you would order up if someone was taking weather requests!
Thunderstorms chances increase overnight
A low pressure system will track into northwestern Iowa by Wednesday morning, then eastward during the day. We could see thunderstorms in southwestern Minnesota anytime after about midnight tonight. The Twin Cities and the rest of southern Minnesota could see thunderstorms before sunrise Wednesday and into the morning rush hour. Another batch of thunderstorms might develop later in the day.
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Here is the forecast rainfall pattern, from tonight through Thursday, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System:
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather over southwestern Minnesota overnight, with a marginal risk of severe weather over portions of the Twin Cities metro area:
The main severe weather threat appears to be large hail.
Rainfall amounts could be substantial over portions of southern Minnesota overnight and Wednesday morning. The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch until 10 a.m. Wednesday for much of southern Minnesota:
A couple of the cities that are included in the flash flood watch are Albert Lea and Mankato.
Wednesday severe risk
The highest risk of severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday night will be toward southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Those areas could see multiple tornadoes and widespread damaging winds and hail.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a moderate risk of severe weather over those areas, with a slight risk from the southern counties of the Twin Cities metro into southern Minnesota:
Moderate risk is the second highest risk category used by the Storm Prediction Center:
Anyone planning to travel to southern Wisconsin or northern parts of Illinois or Indiana tomorrow should pay attention to forecast updates.
EF1 tornado last Sunday evening
The Duluth office of the National Weather Service has completed surveys of two Sunday evening tornado paths.
Here are the survey results that were posted today:
Tornado - #1
Southern Cass, Crow wing, and Aitkin counties MN
| Date | June 19th 2016 |
| Time (Local) | |
| EF Rating | |
| Est. Peak Winds | |
| Path Length | |
| Max Width | |
| Injuries/Deaths | |
| Summary: This tornado damage is currently being surveyed and analyzed. We will post additional information as it becomes available. | |
Tornado - #2 - near Jacobson, MN
Northern Aitkin/Southern Itasca into St. Louis MN
| Date | June 19th 2016 |
| Time (Local) | 6:49 - 6:59 PM CDT |
| EF Rating | 1 - PRELIMINARY |
| Est. Peak Winds | 86-110 MPH |
| Path Length | 8 miles 2 miles northeast of Jacobson to 3 miles east-southeast of Wawina |
| Max Width | A quarter mile |
| Injuries/Deaths | None |
| Summary: The tornado developed 2 miles northeast of Jacobson, MN. It damaged several structures approximately 3.5 miles northeast of Jacobson. Damage to structures rated EF-0. The tornado continued east-northeast through a forested area and intensified to EF-1. It eventually crossed US-2 before dissipating. Several videos and photographs of this tornado have been reported. | |
Tornado - #3 - near Zim, MN
Southern St. Louis county, MN
| Date | June 19th 2016 |
| Time (Local) | 7:05 - 7:19 PM CDT |
| EF Rating | 0 - PRELIMINARY |
| Est. Peak Winds | Undetermined |
| Path Length | 9 miles 6 miles west-southwest of Zim, to 3 miles east-southeast of Zim. |
| Max Width | Undetermined |
| Injuries/Deaths | None |
| Summary: Aerial survey found sporadic tornado damage consistend with an EF-0 tornado. There appeared to be minor roof damage to a structure in the Casco vicinity. Torna | |
More details on the tornadoes can be found here.
