Our October began with highs in the 70s on four consecutive days in the Twin Cities. Highs dropped into the more normal 60s the following two days.
Our gusty winds and highs in the upper 40s last Friday made it feel like late November. Some of us starting thinking about winter prep check lists.
This weekend, we've seen areas of early morning frost.
We're ready for a warmup!
As a high pressure system moves away today through Monday, we'll see southerly winds:
The final frame in the loop shows a cold front moving into Minnesota on Tuesday. It could spread showers across Minnesota, especially Tuesday afternoon. Showers are a good bet Tuesday night and early Wednesday.
Our Sunday highs will be close to normal:
50s are expected over northern and central Minnesota, with many spots in the south touching 60.
Our average high in the Twin Cities is now 61 degrees.
On Monday, many spots in southern Minnesota will hit 70, with 60s over the central and north:
The Twin Cities are should see highs in the 60s Tuesday, then it's back to the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Our next chance of frost in the metro area appears to be Thursday morning.
On Friday, we top out near 60, then upper 60s are possible next Saturday.
Hurricane Matthew is now a post-tropical cyclone.
Here is the definition of a post-tropical cyclone, from National Hurricane Center glossary:
Post-tropical Cyclone: A former tropical cyclone. This generic term describes a cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds. Note that former tropical cyclones that have become fully extratropical...as well as remnant lows...are two classes of post-tropical cyclones.
The Sunday morning advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Matthew is moving away from the U.S. coastline:
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016
...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING
OCCURING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Matthew was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 74.5 West.
Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks
today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A coastal marine
observing site near Hatteras, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135
km/h). A wind gust to 90 mph (127 km/h) was measured at an elevated
private weather station near Nags Head, North Carolina, and a wind
gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) has been observed at Dare County Airport
near Manteo, North Carolina.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the
warning area through early this afternoon, and then gradually
diminish by this evening. Hurricane-force wind gusts should
continue through this morning over the North Carolina Outer Banks.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,
and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near
the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water
rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of
the center. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36
hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina,
including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National
Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and
extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total
rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches,
continues to result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding
across the region.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of
the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States
during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
The National Hurricane Center “cone of uncertainty” shows that Matthew’s center will continue to move away from the east coast of the U.S.:
Matthew caused several fatalities in the United States, after reportedly killing hundreds of people in Haiti.
Cleanup and recovery from Matthew will take weeks or months in many areas along the southeast coast of the United States. Here is a summary from the NWS office in Newport/Morehead, North Carolina:
If Hurricane Matthew had taken a more westerly track along the Florida and Georgia coastlines, U.S. fatalities would likely have been higher. There would also have been much more damage from winds and storm surges.
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.