Warmer temps; frost could return Thursday

Our October began with highs in the 70s on four consecutive days in the Twin Cities. Highs dropped into the more normal 60s the following two days.

Our gusty winds and highs in the upper 40s last Friday made it feel like late November. Some of us starting thinking about winter prep check lists.

This weekend, we've seen areas of early morning frost.

We're ready for a warmup!

Warmer breezes

As a high pressure system moves away today through Monday, we'll see southerly winds:

rt109allfronts

The final frame in the loop shows a cold front moving into Minnesota on Tuesday. It could spread showers across Minnesota, especially Tuesday afternoon. Showers are a good bet Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Our Sunday highs will be close to normal:

rt109h4

50s are expected over northern and central Minnesota, with many spots in the south touching 60.

Our average high in the Twin Cities is now 61 degrees.

On Monday, many spots in southern Minnesota will hit 70, with 60s over the central and north:

rt1010h2

The Twin Cities are should see highs in the 60s Tuesday, then it's back to the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Our next chance of frost in the metro area appears to be Thursday morning.

On Friday, we top out near 60, then upper 60s are possible next Saturday.

Matthew update

Hurricane Matthew is now a post-tropical cyclone.

Here is the definition of a post-tropical cyclone, from National Hurricane Center glossary:

Post-tropical Cyclone: A former tropical cyclone. This generic term describes a cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds. Note that former tropical cyclones that have become fully extratropical...as well as remnant lows...are two classes of post-tropical cyclones.

The Sunday morning advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Matthew is moving away from the U.S. coastline:

BULLETIN

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  45A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016

800 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016

...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING

OCCURING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...35.0N 74.5W

ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* North of Surf City to Duck

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cape Fear to Duck

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone

Matthew was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 74.5 West.

Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A

motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next

couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will

move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks

today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher

gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),

mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force

winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).  A coastal marine

observing site near Hatteras, North Carolina, recently reported

sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust to 84 mph (135

km/h).  A wind gust to 90 mph (127 km/h) was measured at an elevated

private weather station near Nags Head, North Carolina, and a wind

gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) has been observed at Dare County Airport

near Manteo, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the

warning area through early this afternoon, and then gradually

diminish by this evening.  Hurricane-force wind gusts should

continue through this morning over the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area

this morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide,

and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near

the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the

shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground

if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico

and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of

onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative

timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over

short distances.  Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water

rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of

the center.  For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36

hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina,

including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.  For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National

Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information

specific to your area, please see products issued by your local

National Weather Service forecast office.

The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of

areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or

warning currently under development by the National Weather Service

and planned for operational use in 2017.  The Prototype Graphic is

available at hurricanes.gov.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall

accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and

extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total

rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches,

continues to result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding

across the region.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of

the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States

during the next couple of days.  These swells will likely cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.

The National Hurricane Center “cone of uncertainty” shows that Matthew’s center will continue to move away from the east coast of the U.S.:

rt109matt
National Hurricane Center

Matthew caused several fatalities in the United States, after reportedly killing hundreds of people in Haiti.

Cleanup and recovery from Matthew will take weeks or months in many areas along the southeast coast of the United States. Here is a summary from the NWS office in Newport/Morehead, North Carolina:

rt109fld
National Weather service

If Hurricane Matthew had taken a more westerly track along the Florida and Georgia coastlines, U.S. fatalities would likely have been higher.  There would also have been much more damage from winds and storm surges.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

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