Brief return to the 40s; windy with falling temps Tuesday

Most of the snow that decorated Twin Cities lawns and tree branches Sunday morning has already melted.

The rest of the snow could disappear this afternoon.

Southerly winds will give us a temperature boost today, with many spots in southern Minnesota reaching 40 degrees or warmer:

Central and northern Minnesota will see highs in the 30s.

Our average high this time of year is 30 degrees in the Twin Cities, so today's highs will be well above normal.

Cold blast

An arctic cold front moves through Minnesota tonight, and it'll be windy with falling temperatures tomorrow.

Highs on Wednesday will be well below normal, with mostly teens in central and northern Minnesota, and about 20 degrees in the Twin Cities:

It'll still be windy on Wednesday, so some spots could see wind chill temperatures near zero.

High temperatures rebound a bit this coming weekend, with upper 20s to lower 30s possible in southern Minnesota.

Snow and strong winds northwest

A strong low pressure system will bring high winds and heavy snow to northwestern Minnesota from this evening through the overnight hours and Tuesday.

Here’s the simulated radar for this evening through Tuesday afternoon, from NOAA’s 4km resolution North American Mesoscale forecast model:

The Grand Forks office of the National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for northwestern Minnesota from 6 p.m. today to 6 p.m. Tuesday:

Far northwestern Minnesota could see 6 to 9 inches of snow by Tuesday afternoon, and winds will increase to about 25 mph by tomorrow with gusts to 40 mph possible.

A winter weather advisory is in effect from 6 p.m. today to 6 p.m. Tuesday for portions of northwestern Minnesota to the south and east of the warning area.

The winter weather advisory is for 3 to 6 inches of snow and strong winds, and includes Bemidji and Detroit Lakes.

Winter severity

Our colder temperatures in the Twin Cities on Wednesday won't add to the winter misery index tally that is compiled by the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

This is how they score winter misery index points:

The Winter Misery Index (WMI) is an attempt to weigh the relative severity of winter when compared with winters of the past. The WMI assigns single points for daily counts of maximum temperatures 10 degrees F or colder, and daily minimums of 0 degrees F or colder. If the minimum temperature drops to -20 degrees or colder greater, eight points are attributed to that day. Snowfall totals of one inch or greater in a day receive one point. Four-inch snowfalls generate four points for the day, an eight-inch snowfall receives a whopping 16 points. The duration of a winter is quantified using the number of days the snow depth is 12 inches or greater.

We aren't expecting the low to drop below zero in the Twin Cities on Wednesday, and the high temp will be around 20.

So, no WMI points for us on Wednesday, but it'll feel chilly!

Here is the Minnesota State Climatology Office chart of the WMI for each year since 1900:

Last winter was "mild", and the previous winter was on the low end of "moderate", based on the WMI.

Then there was the winter of 2013-2014. That "polar vortex" winter was in the "severe" category, with 207 WMI points!

Snow lovers will disagree with the fact that WMI points are tallied for generous snows, but most of us probably agree that severely cold temps are worthy of points.

We'll check the WMI tally from time to time as we go through this winter season.