Cool start to February; temperature outlook
What is it about the number 17?
Tuesday was the 17th consecutive warmer than normal day in the Twin Cities.
Our average temperature for the month of January was more than 5 degrees above normal, making January our 17th consecutive warmer than normal month in the Twin Cities.
We're overdue for some cooler weather.
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Cooler Wednesday
A cold front will move through Minnesota this Tuesday night, and many spots in Minnesota will see their Wednesday high temperature well before sunrise.
During the daylight hours of Wednesday, most of Minnesota will be in the teens, with a few lower 20s possible in the south.
Thursday will be a cool day as well, with highs in the teens in much of Minnesota:
Some spots in northern Minnesota could top out in the single digits on Thursday.
And yes, the ground hog will see his/her shadow on Thursday in Minnesota.
February outlook
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service released its February outlook today.
It shows a slight tendency for a warmer than normal average monthly temperature over much of Minnesota:
It is the average temperature of the entire month that has a tendency to be warmer than normal, but some cool days can be expected.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a tendency for above normal precipitation in Minnesota this February.
Of course, even if that does happen, it might not all fall as snow!
Saturday snow chance
NOAA’s Global Forecast System forecast model shows a low pressure system tracking across southern Minnesota Saturday, spreading snow over much of central and northern Minnesota:
The Twin Cities metro area could be on the southern edge of the snowfall pattern, so the best chance of snow accumulation in the metro area would tend to be to the north.
By the way, the color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate, not inches of snow!
Winter storm next Tuesday?
The latest run of NOAA’s GFS forecast model continues to show a low pressure system passing to our south next Tuesday, Feb. 7, dropping snow over Minnesota and Wisconsin:
Another forecast model shows a more northerly track, which could bring a wintry mix to parts of southern Minnesota and wet snow to the north.
At this point, I would call it a potential winter storm for next Tuesday.
Forecast maps could change quite a bit as we get closer to Feb. 7, but this will be interesting to watch!
Hit of the party
You could impress your friends with all kinds of Minnesota snow facts at your next party!
This was tweeted today by the NWS:
It points you to NOAA's snowfall extremes page.
Enjoy!