Groundhog report card; Saturday snow chance

Happy Groundhog Day!

According to Bill Chappell of National Public Radio:

A large crowd turned out to see Punxsutawney Phil on Groundhog Day Thursday, waiting to learn whether the animal saw his own shadow on Gobbler's Knob. Phil was in an unusually feisty mood, but once he settled down, he saw his own shadow, officials deemed.

As aficionados of the annual ritual will know, that means we're in for six more weeks of cold weather, and as the prediction was read out in in Punxsutawney Pa., a sign was held aloft reading, "We love Old Man Winter."

In much of the country, six more weeks of winter would be considered a long winter.

Not here in Minnesota, where a winter that ends in the middle of March is relatively short.

On average, March is the third snowiest month of the year in the Twin Cities, and we all know that it can snow in April.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states that Groundhog Day in the United States can be traced  back to 1887:

Groundhog Day originates from an ancient celebration of the midway point between the winter solstice and the spring equinox—the day right in the middle of astronomical winter. According to superstition, sunny skies that day signify a stormy and cold second half of winter while cloudy skies indicate the arrival of warm weather.

The trail of Phil’s history leads back to Clymer H. Freas, city editor of the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper. Inspired by a group of local groundhog hunters—whom he would dub the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club—Freas declared Phil as America’s official forecasting groundhog in 1887. As he continued to embellish the groundhog's story year after year, other newspapers picked it up, and soon everyone looked to Punxsutawney Phil for the prediction of when spring would return to the country.

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental information looked at national temperature data and concluded that Punxsutawney Phil has a 50% accuracy record in the past 10 years:

Phil is cute, but cloud cover in Pennsylvania is a crude way to predict the end of winter!

Cool through Friday

Highs today will be in the teens over most of Minnesota, but a few spots in far northern Minnesota could top out in the single digits.

Slightly milder highs are on tap for Friday, with some lower 20s in the south:

Some spots in southern Minnesota will reach the lower 30s on Saturday.

Saturday snow north

NOAA’s Global Forecast System forecast model shows a low-pressure system tracking across Minnesota Saturday, spreading snow over much of central and northern Minnesota:

The Twin Cities metro area could be on the southern edge of the snowfall pattern, so the best chance of snow accumulation in the metro area would tend to be to the north.

By the way, the color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate, not inches of snow!

Snow or wintry mix next Tuesday

The latest run of NOAA’s GFS forecast model continues to show a low pressure system passing to our south next Monday night through Tuesday, dropping snow over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin:

Southern Minnesota could see a wintry mix of rain/sleet and snow, with snow over the central and north.

At this point, I would call it a potential winter storm for next Monday night and Tuesday.

Forecast maps could change quite a bit as we get closer to Monday night and Tuesday, and this will be interesting to watch!

Cold Wednesday

Cold air surges back over Minnesota on Wednesday, in the wake of the departing low-pressure system.

Highs next Wednesday and Thursday could be much like today's high temperatures.

Near normal highs return next Friday.

NOAA's GFS model shows above normal temps from Saturday Feb. 11 through Friday Feb. 17:

Stayed tuned for updates on our February temperature trends!