Slightly milder Friday; some Saturday flakes
Minnesota saw March-like warmth in late January, but our temps the first two days of February leave little doubt that it's still winter.
Highs in the upper teens were common across Minnesota on Thursday, and some spots in northern Minnesota never made it out of the single digits.
Our Friday afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday afternoon, topping 20 degrees in central and southern Minnesota, with some teens in the north.
On Saturday, some spots in southern and central Minnesota will see 30s:
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Northern Minnesota will top out in the 20s Saturday afternoon.
Saturday flakes
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows a low pressure system tracking across Minnesota Saturday, spreading snow over much of central and northern Minnesota:
The color chart on the lower right of the loop refers to the strength of the radar signal returning to the radar, not inches of snow!
Parts of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin could see 2 or 3 inches of snow, and a little bit of snow could accumulate in the northern part of the Twin Cities metro area.
The remainder of the metro area might see a few flakes on Saturday and Saturday evening.
Record warmth
January was the seventeenth consecutive month with a warmer than normal average monthly temperature in the Twin Cities.
According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, this is a new record streak:
The last time the Twin Cities recorded a below-normal monthly temperature was August 2015. This appears to be the longest above-average monthly temperature streak of any kind on record in the Twin Cities, though it is worth noting that the "normals" refresh every 10 years, and procedures for calculating them have changed over time. As of this writing, only five months out of the last 32 (back to June 2014) have been below normal in the Twin Cities. The second longest streak on record was 16 months, from June 2011 through September 12.
There were some very cold days in early January, but the final 17 days of the month were all warmer than normal.
The January temperature graph shows that warm days (red bars) vastly outnumbered cold days (blue bars):
The average monthly temperature (average of all the high temps and low temps) was 5.3 degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities.
We saved on our heating bills, but I'm sure many snow lovers weren't amused by the unusually warm weather.
Tuesday snowstorm?
The latest run of NOAA’s GFS forecast model continues to show a low pressure system passing to our south next Monday night through Tuesday night, dropping snow over much of Minnesota and Wisconsin:
If this forecast model is correct, northern and central Minnesota will see all snow.
Southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area could see a wintry mix of rain/sleet and snow that changes to all snow.
A more southerly track of the low would generate all snow for most of Minnesota.
At this point, I'd call it a potential winter storm for next Monday night and Tuesday.
Forecast maps could change quite a bit as we get closer to Monday night and Tuesday, and this will be interesting to watch!
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.